\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 532 Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) )
In 2021, the company's performance increased by 100% year-on-year. In 2021, the annual revenue was 28.745 billion yuan (+ 4.68%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.833 billion yuan (+ 100.44%), the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 3.694 billion yuan (+ 97.73%), and the net operating cash flow was 1.979 billion yuan (- 36.11%). In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue was 6.953 billion yuan (- 15.1%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 601 million yuan (- 12.4%), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 551 million yuan (- 18.5%). In 2021, there was a certain deviation between the company's operating net cash flow and net profit, mainly due to the increase of goods in stock and the increase of operating receivables in the reporting period. The company has drawn up a profit distribution plan for 2021 and distributed a cash dividend of 2 yuan for every 10 shares to all shareholders.
Electrolytic aluminum business has strong profitability. Benefiting from the sharp rise of aluminum price in 2021 and the cost advantage brought by the company's capacity layout, the gross profit per ton of aluminum ingots produced by the company in 2021 reached 5665 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin of self-produced aluminum ingots reached 34.5%. Although the company faces the rising pressure of coal, petroleum coke and alumina prices in 2021, the production cost of aluminum ingots is relatively controllable. The production cost of aluminum ingots in 2021 is only 10757 yuan / ton, an increase of 1945 yuan / ton compared with 2020. In addition to aluminum ingots, the profitability of other products of the company is also relatively strong. In 2021, the gross profit margin of aluminum products of the company was 19%, the gross profit margin of pre baked anode was 19.8%, the gross profit margin of alumina was 15.1%, and the gross profit margin of high-purity aluminum was maintained at more than 40%.
Extend the industrial chain downstream, expand high-purity aluminum and cut into power battery foil. The company has a production capacity of 40000 tons of high-purity aluminum, reaching 60000 tons in the middle of this year and 100000 tons in the long-term plan. The company began to implement the transformation and upgrading of the production line of 100000 tons of power battery aluminum foil in phase I of Jiangyin Xinren aluminum industry. At the same time, it started to build a 100000 tons of power battery foil cold rolling production line in Shihezi, Xinjiang, and quickly cut into the new energy power battery foil track, laying the foundation for the company's new transformation.
Risk tip: the release of alumina production capacity is lower than expected, and the epidemic affects the demand for raw aluminum.
Investment advice: maintain the "buy" rating
We conservatively assume that in 20222024, the spot price of aluminum is 20000 yuan / ton, the price of alumina is 3000 yuan / ton, the price of pre baked anode is 5500 yuan / ton, and the price of power consumption of the company is 0.19 yuan / kWh. It is estimated that the revenue in 20222024 will be 35.2/367/36.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 22.6/4.1/0.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.64/53.69/5.453 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 32.1/6.0/1.6%; Diluted EPS = 1.09/1.15/1.17 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to PE = 8.0/7.5/7.4x. The company is China's leading low-cost electrolytic aluminum enterprise with outstanding advantages in electricity charges. The company plans to enter the field of power battery aluminum foil and actively promote the integrated development strategy of overseas industrial chain, so as to open up long-term growth space for the company and maintain the "buy" rating.
