\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 436 Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) )
Event:
In 2021, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 5.040 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.92%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 621 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.16%, deducting 591 million yuan of non attributable net profit, a year-on-year increase of 102.46%
In the first quarter of 2022, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 180210 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 77.49% – 107.07%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 115125 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5% – 14.13%
Core view:
The steady expansion of production capacity has laid the foundation for growth, and the operating efficiency has been steadily improved to resist the impact of the price rise of upstream raw materials. In 2021, the demand for PCB and IC carrier sectors is relatively strong, and the production capacity of the company’s new model sectors, small batch sectors and IC carrier sectors can smoothly climb to the production capacity, laying the foundation for the company’s high-quality growth throughout the year; In terms of profitability, when the prices of raw materials such as upstream copper foil, resin and copper clad laminate continue to rise, the company’s model and small batch boards show strong cost transmission attributes, and the gross profit margin is relatively stable. At the same time, the effectiveness of lean production of the company begins to appear, the operating efficiency continues to improve, and the cost rate during the period can be continuously improved. On the whole, the company is on the right growth track and moving forward.
In the first quarter of this year, the positive factors driving the company’s growth continued to play an effective role, with stable growth of production capacity and continuous improvement of benefits, which helped the company to still hand over the answer sheet of year-on-year positive growth in the off-season of the industry. Of course, the equity accounting method was adjusted due to the decrease of the company’s shareholding ratio due to the capital increase and share expansion of the participating company Ruijun semiconductor and the transfer of part of the company’s equity. The investment income of 61 million yuan was the main reason for the significant increase of the parent company’s profit. However, it should be noted that due to the amortization of employee stock ownership expenses, the labor expenses formed by Xingke semiconductor’s not yet put into operation, as well as the early preparation expenses of FCBGA packaging substrate business and Zhuhai factory, In particular, under the objective background of the Pearl River Delta epidemic in the first quarter, the company’s non net profit deduction can still achieve positive growth, which reflects the strong toughness of the company’s traditional business. In the future, with the gradual implementation of the above layout this year, the growth elasticity of the company in the coming year is worth looking forward to.
The IC carrier board tackles tough high-end technology, and its scientific and technological attributes are continuously strengthened. In February, the company announced that it plans to invest in flip chip ball grid array (FCBGA). We have pointed out in the previous comments that the investment of FCBGA products will have a clear complementary effect with the company’s existing products in terms of material process path and application scenario, which belongs to the further advancement of technical process capability. If we can successfully achieve process breakthrough and mass production, it will fill the gap in China, Solve another neck sticking technology in the process of chip localization. In the first quarter performance forecast, the company clearly pointed out that the preparation of FCBGA packaging substrate business has generated corresponding employee costs. It can be seen that the company is steadily promoting the investment plan, and the subsequent progress and results after the project is put into operation are worth looking forward to.
At present, the company has a storage BT carrier capacity of 20000 square meters / month in Guangzhou production base. The first phase of the carrier project (Guangzhou Xingke) cooperated with the large fund is about to be put into operation, with a planned capacity of 45000 square meters / month. The FCBGA carrier project has a planned capacity of 20 million pieces / month, with a planned full output value of about 5.6 billion yuan. It is constructed in two phases, which will reach the capacity in 2025 and 2027 respectively, which means that by 2025, The annual output value of the company’s IC carrier business is expected to be close to 5 billion yuan. In the next few years, the revenue and profit proportion of the company’s semiconductor business (IC carrier + semiconductor test board) is expected to gradually increase to more than 60%, and the company’s semiconductor front-end material properties will be further strengthened.
PCB production capacity has been steadily increased, and the scale effect has been continuously enhanced. During 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, the production capacity of XINGSEN express rigid circuit board project (convertible bond raised investment project in 2020) continued to climb, the production capacity of small batch boards in Yixing Silicon Valley continued to release, and the overall PCB production capacity of the company increased steadily. The company is the leader of China’s model and small batch boards. Compared with batch boards, the model relies less on a single downstream and has stronger relevance to scientific and technological innovation. At present, the global consumer electronics, new energy vehicles Communication servers are in the new cycle of technological innovation and iteration, which is expected to lay a foundation for the digestion of the company’s new PCB capacity this year and next.
Profit forecast and rating: maintain the buy rating. 20202021 is a year of pressure for the PCB industry. The prices of various raw materials in the upstream continue to rise, which puts great pressure on most PCB enterprises, especially hard board factories. However, Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) relying on its own Allegro and small batch special industry attributes, Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) can smoothly transmit the pressure to the downstream and realize counter trend growth. Through years of hard layout and cultivation, the scale effect of IC carrier board, test board and other semiconductors has begun to take shape. Obviously, the company has begun to enter the high value-added growth cashing period. According to our research model, the net profits from 2021 to 2023 are expected to be 622 million, 735 million and 884 million respectively, and the current stock price corresponds to pe2.2 billion 48, 19.01 and 15.80 times, maintaining the company’s buy rating.
Risk tips: (1) the construction progress of semiconductor packaging industry project and the expansion progress of IC carrier sector are not as expected; (2) PCB capacity expansion is less than expected; (3) The progress of the downstream supply chain localization IC carrier replacement is lower than expected.
