\u3000\u30 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 77 Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) )
The server leader is expected to enter the demand inflection point and maintain the "buy" rating
Considering the continuous increase of the company's investment, we lowered the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 2.474 and 3.027 billion yuan (the original forecast was 2.543 and 3.088 billion yuan), increased the forecast of 2024 to 3.689 billion yuan, EPS to 1.70, 2.08 and 2.54 yuan / share, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 15.4, 12.6 and 10.3 times. Considering that the company, as the leader of China's servers, maintains the "buy" rating.
The performance is in line with expectations, the inventory reserve is sufficient, and the anti risk ability is improved
(1) in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 67.048 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%. Among them, the Chinese business increased by 14.96% year-on-year, and the overseas business decreased by 34.88% year-on-year. (2) The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.003 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.57%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.797 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.56%, and the profitability was significantly improved. The gross profit margin of the company's sales was 11.44%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.26 percentage points, which was partly affected by the inclusion of some freight costs due to changes in accounting standards. (3) At the end of 2021, the company's inventory was 22.402 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 104.71%, mainly due to the shortage of global raw material supply and the company's increased stock. Therefore, the company's net cash flow from operating activities was -8.289 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 455.73%.
Technology leadership, leading the world in the fields of cloud, AI, open computing and edge computing
In the field of cloud computing, the company's SR full cabinet server has a market share of more than 60% in China, i48 which is the world's first Scorpio multi node server certified by odcc; In the field of AI, the company has the full stack technical capability of AI platform, released the first intelligent computing center dispatching system aistation, has the most powerful liquid cooling AI server nf5488la5, and released the AI massive model "source 1.0" with 245.7 billion parameters; In the field of edge computing, the company participated in the development of otii benchmark of odcc community, and launched the first edge server ne5260m5 meeting the standard, which was widely adopted by the communication industry.
"Counting from the east to the west" project is expected to bring long-term business opportunities to the company
In February 2022, the national development and Reform Commission, the central network information office, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a document, and the project of "counting from the east to the west" was officially launched. The "east to West computing" project will accelerate the construction of computing power and improve the digital economy infrastructure, which is expected to bring medium and long-term development driving force to the company.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation risk, technology upgrading risk and internal governance risk.
