\u3000\u30 Beijing Telesound Electronics Co.Ltd(003004) 98 Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) )
1. Dimension 1: strong growth, the company has accumulated a lot, and the pig breeding sector has entered a stage of rapid growth.
1) the steady expansion of production capacity lays the foundation for the continuous growth of marketing volume. Before the plague, the company's sales volume has maintained a compound annual growth rate of 24%. Non plague affects part of the company's production capacity. With the continuous upgrading of the company's breeding mode and management ability, the company's marketing volume will return to the level of ten million again in 2021. Up to now, the production capacity of the company's pig breeding barns has reached 46 million, with about 1-1.1 million high-performance breeding sows with low gestational age (as of February 2022) and sufficient reserve sows. It is preliminarily planned to increase to 1.4 million by the end of the year, laying a foundation for the growth of breeding height. We expect that the pig breeding leader has entered the stage of high recovery growth. It is estimated that 18 / 28 million pigs will be sold in Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 2022 / 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of about 45%, which is ahead of all companies, and the historical cashing rate is significantly better than that of peers!
2. Dimension 2: reduce the cost and increase efficiency, and the breeding cost continues to decline. The space is expected to provide guarantee for the profitability of the company.
Since the non plague, the cost of non plague prevention has increased significantly; However, with the company's capacity optimization, mode upgrading and management improvement, the company's capacity utilization and breeding efficiency have been significantly improved. 1) the long-term accumulation of breeding system ensures the rapid recovery of the company's sow population. At present, the breeding stock has been updated to high-performance sows. The average number of healthy litter per litter, breeding and delivery rate, seedling input and other production indicators have increased month by month, and the rate of production, death and washing and the cost of pig seedlings have decreased; 2) The software, hardware and management of the fattening farm have been greatly improved, and the average household marketing scale has increased from 772 in 2016 to 926 in 2019, and then to 1150 at present; 3) The centralized collection of feed raw materials and the full play of the technical advantages of feed nutritional formula are conducive to the control of feed cost of the company. Based on this, we believe that in the future, with the improvement of capacity utilization (at present, the capacity utilization is only about 29%, which has great room for improvement compared with the previous 77%) and the further strengthening of production efficiency, the comprehensive cost target this year will be reduced to 16-17 yuan / kg (the comprehensive cost of 2022m1 is less than 18 yuan / kg).
3. Dimension 3: sufficient capital reserves to support the adverse growth of the company in the cold winter.
Pig breeding leader deeply cultivates the pig track and has experienced several rounds of cycles. On the one hand, the company actively "open source", 2021m4 company issued convertible bonds to raise 9.227 billion yuan; By increasing the proportion of long-term liabilities, reduce the debt repayment pressure during the downward cycle; On the other hand, the company attaches importance to "throttling". At the early stage of this cycle, compared with its peers, the company collected funds by controlling capital expenditure and activating assets earlier to ensure sufficient funds in the trough period. As of 2022m1, the company had about 12 billion yuan of available funds. We believe that the company's overall capital reserve is sufficient and is expected to support the company's growth against the trend in the cold winter. In addition, the prosperity of the yellow chicken industry has recovered. As the leader of the yellow chicken, the breeding cost of the company has a significant downward trend, which is expected to provide the company with operating cash inflow.
4. Dimension 4: the valuation is in the historical bottom range, with significant upward space!
Pig breeding stocks can be valued and predicted by the average market value of each head, and the average profit of each head is the basis of the average market value of each head. Taking into account the downward trend of Wynn's future costs, we believe that at the peak of the next cycle, Wynn's annualized head average profit is expected to reach 700 + yuan / head (if the current round of industry capacity de industrialization exceeds expectations, the head average profit is expected to be higher). With the significant improvement of the company's costs and various production indicators, it is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 64.96/68.75/109.73 billion yuan (the former value is 60.6/710113.5 billion yuan), with a year-on-year change of - 13.31% / 5.82% / 59.61%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be - 133.4 / - 26.5/19.02 billion yuan (the former value is - 135 / - 46 / 20 billion yuan), with a year-on-year change of - 279.61% / 80.15% / 818.50%; Taking into account the company's historical cycle of marketing and cost fulfillment, the company is given a 15x valuation in the business cycle, and the average market value of the target head is 10500 yuan / head (historically, the average market value of the company's head is higher than 10000 yuan / head in the pig price business cycle). We estimate that the number of pigs sold by the company in 2023 is 28 million respectively, so it is estimated that the corresponding target market value of the company's pig breeding sector is 280 billion yuan, plus the valuation of non pig businesses such as yellow chicken is 50 billion yuan, The total market value is 330 billion yuan, corresponding to the 23-year target price of 51.95 yuan / share, and the "buy" rating will continue to be given.
Risk warning: epidemic risk; Pig prices did not meet expectations; Risk of policy change; Less than expected.
