\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 877 Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) )
Higher economic policies accelerate the development of distributed photovoltaic
In 2021, China’s PV installed capacity increased by 55gw, including distributed 29gw, accounting for 53%, surpassing centralized for the first time. The rapid development of distributed PV is mainly due to its high economy. According to our calculation, the IRR of industrial and commercial / household (without considering subsidies) projects in 2021 is 1.90%/5.31% higher than that of centralized projects. In addition to the high economy, distributed photovoltaic has great development potential under the support of policies such as the promotion of the whole county, Rural Revitalization and power cut-off.
National household photovoltaic leader, the whole county promotes and helps take off
Chint is the leader of household photovoltaic in China, accounting for 17.92% in 2021h1, significantly higher than other enterprises. The company has seized the opportunity of promoting the whole county, and the contracted scale has reached 5.25gw.
Since the company’s power stations are mainly self-sustaining and have heavy assets, the “asset light” strategy was launched in 2020. On the one hand, it can accelerate the return of funds and realize the rolling development of power stations; On the other hand, it can continue to provide operation and maintenance services for the sold power stations, which is in line with the company’s long-term development strategy of providing comprehensive energy services. Under the background of promoting the whole county to attract central state-owned enterprises, the company’s household power station has more buyers with strong financial strength, and the construction sale mode is expected to gradually step on the right track.
Building Zhengtai household photovoltaic moat through the competitiveness of the whole process
From the perspective of project process, a household photovoltaic power station needs to go through pre development, material selection & production, design, installation, acceptance, grid connection, long-term operation and maintenance and other key nodes. By comparing with the mainstream household installers in the market, we find that: 1) zhengtaihe Trina Fujia has more advantages in early material selection and production. 2) The preliminary development, installation, acceptance and grid connection rely on the perfect channel layout, and Chint’s channel capacity is better than other companies. 3) The functional gap covered by the operation and maintenance system of mainstream enterprises is not large, but Chint is more competitive in the operation and maintenance team and scale. On the whole, we believe that the competitiveness of the company covers the whole process of household photovoltaic power station development. Under the opportunity of promoting the whole county, it is expected that the stronger the stronger.
Low voltage electrical appliances: steady growth of channels, accelerated expansion of direct sales and overseas business
In our previous report, we made three judgments on the growth path of the company’s low-voltage electrical business: 1) channel sinking; 2) Direct selling mode; 3) Overseas layout. At present, the company has made relatively smooth progress in the above three aspects, and the channel business has achieved steady growth; The direct selling business takes the head customers of the subdivided industry as the key expansion object, and the orders continue to break through; Overseas businesses blossom more.
Investment suggestion: in terms of photovoltaic business, we expect that the total contribution of battery modules, photovoltaic power station EPC and photovoltaic power station operation in 21-23 years will belong to the parent company’s net profit of RMB 5 / 10 / 1.5 billion. Referring to Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , 26xpe will be given in 2022, corresponding to the market value of photovoltaic part of 26.8 billion yuan. The low-voltage electrical appliance sector is expected to maintain steady growth, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.2 billion, 3.9 billion and 4.7 billion from 21 to 23. Comparing Shanghai Liangxin Electrical Co.Ltd(002706) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , 22xpe is given in 2022, corresponding to a market value of 85.6 billion yuan. For other businesses, pe15x will be given in 2022. It is estimated that the reasonable market value of the company in 2022 will be 112.7 billion yuan, and the target price will be 52.4 yuan / share, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk tip: covid-19 epidemic situation aggravates the risk, raw material price rise risk, and industry competition intensifies the risk. The calculation has a certain subjectivity.
