\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 76 Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) )
Core view:
The company’s a + H shares are listed in both places and is an old comprehensive large-scale securities firm Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) is one of the first comprehensive securities companies in China. The company has no actual controller, and the three major shareholders have held it stably for many years. The continuous, balanced and diversified ownership structure provides a solid guarantee for the company to form a good governance structure, ensures the company to maintain a market-oriented operation mechanism for a long time, and is conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of the company.
The effect of wealth management is prominent, and the institutional business is gradually expanded. The company’s brokerage business income has achieved double-digit growth for three consecutive years, among which the income from consignment financial products still increased by 85% in 2021 under the high base growth rate in recent years, highlighting the effect of wealth management transformation. The proportion of brokerage clients of the company has also increased year by year, which is expected to become the “stabilizer” of the company’s performance.
During the transformation of asset management business, one participation and one control fund companies are the leaders. The company actively promoted the transformation of large collection products, and the scale of asset management increased significantly. At the same time, the company controls GF fund and shares in e fund, which has broad prospects for the development of large asset management business. The average monthly scale of e fund and GF non commodity public funds ranked 1 / 2 of the market respectively, ranking in the leading position in the industry and contributing considerable income to the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions:
We predict that Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) from 2022 to 2024, the total operating revenue will be 39.1/44.7/51.5 billion yuan respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 12.9/15.1/17.8 billion, with a year-on-year change of 19.2% / 16.6% / 17.8% respectively; The corresponding roe levels were 11.7% / 12.7% / 13.9% respectively. Considering that the company is a leading company in the industry and has strong comprehensive strength, and the participating fund companies are in the top position, the investment banking business is expected to accelerate the recovery. We give Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) 2022 target Pb 1.6x, corresponding to the share price of 22.39 yuan. For the first time, the company will be given a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the effect of policy implementation is less than expected or even tightened, liquidity is tightened, stock based turnover has fallen sharply, and the overall market downside risk.
