\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
The business development in 2021 came to a perfect end: in 2021, the company achieved a reputation industry revenue of 1061.9 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.9%, and realized a parent floating profit of 524.6 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.3%. The overall industry performance was in line with expectations, of which Q4 achieved a substitute industry revenue of 324.1 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.0%, and realized a parent floating profit of 151.9 times, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. Which step did Q4 improve.
The volume of Maotai + Series liquor increased extravagantly, and the revenue of attendance increased steadily: according to the products, during the period, the company’s turnover revenue of Maotai Liquor / other series liquor was 934.6/125.9 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.2% / + 26.1%, the sales volume was 36.3/302000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.7% / + 1.5%, and the spray price increased by 4.3% / 24.2% respectively. The volume and price of Maotai Liquor / other series liquor increased extravagantly throughout the year, realizing the transportation of healthy maohao + Series liquor. Maohao liquor: benefiting from the increased contribution of non model products and direct sales channels, the average price of products has increased. In 2022, without considering the expectation of CommScope Mao’s price increase, it is expected that the release of rare products and vintage liquor will continue to increase. Who will further improve the price calling water, plus the increase of base liquor stock and other customer turnover factors will contribute more increment, and the annual sales are expected to accelerate in a specified amount. In terms of series liquor, the product balance was continuously optimized during the period, and the average spray price of series liquor increased significantly, which is the main real source of revenue growth of the company’s series products. After the company listed the new product maohao 1935 at the beginning of 2022, the market injection rate remained high, which is expected to undertake the company’s position as the core single product at the price of 1000 yuan, and the market capacity can be expected in the future. During the period, the company increased 63 main service dealers (mainly Maotai flavor series liquor dealers). Yaya vigorously improved the quality of series liquor and the back use of market development, which will promote the orderly increase of the market share of Shanxiang series liquor products in the future.
The profitability of products and pipelines has been steadily improved: in 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s liquor business rose by 0.14ppt to 91.6% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin maintained a steady upward trend, mainly benefiting from the performance optimization of products and the increase of the proportion of direct sales per pipeline. In terms of Jingyu expense rate, during the period, due to the increase of employee salary and maintenance expenses, Zun’s management expense rate increased significantly, but it was offset by the decrease of Zun’s financial expense rate due to the increase of bank deposit interest. The overall Jingyu expense control maintained Weijian. Finally, the floating interest rate of the company was 49.4%, up 0.2pct year-on-year. Looking forward to the future, it is expected that the company’s non mold products and direct sales channels will increase the amount of investment, and the overall average sales price and profitability of daiqin will rise steadily in the future. In 2022, the current industry is expected to speed up: in 2022, the company formulated the corresponding economic reputation standard, and the annual revenue of diesel fuel is expected to increase by about 15%, which is stronger than the growth target in 2020 and 2021. According to the preliminary accounting of the company, the Q1 revenue / Jinmu floating profit were 18% / 19% year-on-year respectively, which made a good start and was a solid foundation for the annual performance. We expect that with the accelerated implementation of the company’s marketing reform in the future, the annual volume and price will soar, and the performance is expected to exceed expectations. It is expected that the cash income is expected to be 1234.6/1431.4/1648.0 and the cash floating profit is 617.4/723.0/837.2 times from 2022 to 2024.
The price of the model is 2211.6 yuan, and the level of entry is in order. In conclusion, we have a relatively limited time for the high-end Baijiu market. The shortage of Mao Hao liquor will support the company’s long-term growth due to the scarcity of products. After the new chairman Ding Xiong took office again in September 2021, the company’s reform efforts have been strengthened. The effectiveness of maohao’s market-oriented reform is gradually realized, and the brand potential is expected to be expanded. The company’s internal and external governance has been improving in the past, and the long-term development momentum is clearer. Therefore, we gave the company a target model price of 2211.6 yuan, which is equivalent to 45 times PE of the profit forecast for fiscal year 22, maintaining the placement rating.
Important risks: 1) food safety; 2) The effectiveness of the reform was not as expected: 3) the investment and development of the epidemic exceeded the loss period.
