Shenergy Company Limited(600642)
Key points
Event: the company released its 2021 annual report and achieved a revenue of 25.313 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.43%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.642 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 31.36%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 228 million, a year-on-year decrease of 90.46%. Q4 single quarter split: the revenue was 7.414 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.17%; The gross profit margin was 9.95%, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.01pct and a month on month increase of 5.68pct; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -761 million, a year-on-year decrease of 272.44%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was -1.195 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 354.62%.
Comments:
The development of new energy business has been effective. The "14th five year plan" determines the development trend: new energy business is an important development engine of the company: 1) fast revenue growth: the revenue of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in 2021 was 1.915 billion and 426 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 46.18% and 48.70%, much higher than that of thermal power business (a year-on-year increase of 25.01%); 2) Strong profitability: the gross profit margins of wind power and photovoltaic in 2021 are 59.45% and 54.91% respectively. In 2021, the overall revenue of new energy power generation business accounted for 9.25% and the gross profit accounted for 47.70%. The 14th five year plan of the company specifies that the installed capacity of non-aqueous renewable energy will increase by 8-10gw by 2025, accounting for 50%, demonstrating the determination to expand new energy business.
High coal price suppresses coal power business: in 2021, the coal cost of the company's coal power business was 7.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 86.80%; The average unit price of standard coal consumed by the holding was 1052 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 23.20%. Under the background of high coal price, the company's thermal power business is under pressure; In 2021, the coal power business achieved a revenue of 9.491 billion and a gross profit of - 18 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.487 billion. Wujing No. 2 power generation (51% held by the company) and Huaibei Shenwan Power Generation Co., Ltd. (51% held by the company) lost 272 million and 136 million in the whole year.
Take advantage of thermal power to accelerate the expansion of emerging energy business: the company actively expands the projects of "fire storage", "scenery storage", "user side microgrid" and "IDC energy distribution and storage". Taking advantage of its own advantages of thermal power units, the company has completed the joint operation project of external power generation, fire storage (5MW / 10mwh), effectively enhanced the primary frequency modulation and AGC response competitiveness of on grid units, and become the first case of coupled electric energy storage joint operation of large thermal power units in East China. The energy storage business is expected to develop a new growth pole for the company.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the coal price is high in the second half of 2021, and the overall thermal power operators are in a state of loss. Under the guidance of the policy of "electricity coal guiding price" and "electricity price marketization", we believe that the company's thermal power profit will be improved in 22 years. The expansion trend of new energy business is determined, which will synchronously improve the overall profitability of the company. Therefore, we raised the EPS forecast value of 22 / 23 years to 0.59 (up 7.3%) / 0.64 (up 8.5%) yuan, and added the EPS forecast value of 24 years to 0.72 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 10.3/9.5/8.4 times of dynamic PE from 2022 to 24 respectively. Based on the gradual improvement of the company's fundamentals, maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the price of thermal coal rose more than expected, the demand for electricity fell more than expected, and the progress of electricity price reform was lower than expected.
