\u3000\u30 Beijing Zznode Technologies Co.Ltd(003007) 55 Vats Liquor Chain Store Management Joint Stock Co.Ltd(300755) )
Event: the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2022, it is expected to realize an operating revenue of RMB 3.530-3.560 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 50.00% – 51.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 248258 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.02% – 35.00%; It is expected to realize a net profit of 244253 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.79% – 32.78%.
The distribution capacity has been continuously improved, and the marketing in the peak season of the Spring Festival has been carried out in an orderly manner. Quarter by quarter, Q1-Q4 achieved operating revenue of RMB 23.53/16.01/20.181488 billion respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 81.74% / 49.93% / 53.08% / 18.04% respectively. In 2022, Q1 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 3.530-3.560 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 50.00% – 51.28%, mainly due to 1) the accurate research and judgment of the company’s market demand, sufficient stock in the peak sales season of the Spring Festival and orderly marketing scheduling; 2) Combined with the epidemic prevention and control situation, the company’s strategy was further optimized and the marketing rhythm was well grasped; 3) The distribution capacity of chain stores has been continuously improved, and the number of direct supply outlets has continued to expand.
Due to the large demand for standard wine during the Spring Festival, the profit growth of 22q1 slowed down. Quarter by quarter, Q1-Q4 achieved net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 1.91/1.76/2.15/0.95 billion respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 95.22% / 51.80% / 100.54% / 79.20% respectively, and realized net profit attributable to parent company of 8.11% / 10.97% / 10.63% / 6.35% respectively. In 2022, Q1 is expected to achieve a net profit of 248258 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.02% – 35.00%, and a net profit margin of 6.97% – 7.30%, which is expected to increase month on month, mainly due to the continuous expansion of the fidelity chain brand effect of “buy real wine to Huazhi” and “buy famous wine to Huazhi”; 2) The internal management process of the company was further optimized, and the market response ability and operation efficiency were significantly improved.
Continue to increase the proportion of fine wine and explore multi-channel three-dimensional marketing layout. On the product side, relying on the continuous and stable cooperative relationship with upstream liquor enterprises and liquor merchants, the company carried out the procurement of famous liquor and the development of high-quality liquor simultaneously, continued to strengthen the market promotion of high-quality liquor, and further achieved a profit breakthrough. On the channel side, steadily promote the national layout of chain stores and retail outlets, and steadily improve the quantity and quality. According to the company’s 2021 annual report, the company has more than 30000 retail outlets and 273 new chain stores. At the same time, actively expand e-commerce and new media channels to improve brand recognition.
Investment suggestion: since 21 years, the performance has continued to exceed expectations, and the high growth under the “double hundred goals” can be expected. The company’s standard is developing steadily, and the quality of the Baijiu is continuously increased, the market recognition has been continuously improved, and the customized products have been continuously pushed forward, helping the high-end brand of high-end liquor products to become high-end. At the same time, the channel model of Huazhi has been continuously verified, which has greatly improved the efficiency of jiuliutong industry. Therefore, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years to be RMB 9 / 1.1 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 16x / 13X respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic risk, company operation risk, no urgent expectation for expanding stores, less progress in promoting new products than expected, performance forecast is only the preliminary calculation results, and the specific data shall be subject to the official release of the first quarterly report
