\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
Event: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) issued the annual report for 2021. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 136405 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.04%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.726 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.43%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 4.203 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.55%.
Revenue increased by 32.0% year-on-year, thanks to the improvement of new car sales and the optimization of product structure. In 2021, the company achieved year-on-year growth in operating revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company, mainly because the company continued to promote the model cycle, increased new car sales and optimized model structure. In 2021, the company sold more than 1.28 million new cars, with a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. In 2021, the company’s single car ASP was about 106500 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 15.0%. The proportion of Euler cat, Great Wall gun, tank 300 and other models with high unit price increased.
Short term performance is disturbed by factors such as lack of core, price rise of raw materials and expense accrual. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 increased by 25.4% year-on-year, and the operation was stable. 21q4 company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 33.8%, which was mainly affected by the rise in the price of raw materials, the provision of fees related to charging equity compensation of Euler users and the provision of equity incentive fees. We believe that the shortage of chips leads to the incomplete release of the company’s production capacity. With the improvement of factors such as core shortage and rising raw material prices, the company’s sales volume is expected to further increase and improve its profitability.
The new car cycle continues, and the transformation of Electric Intelligence accelerates. In 2021, based on the new platform, the company continued to update the product matrix, established its own high-end cross-country brand tank, and launched more than 30 new models, such as haver red rabbit, haver beast, WeiPai Mocha, WeiPai macchido dht-phev, WeiPai latte DHT, tank 300 city version, tank 500 and Euler cat GT. The sales of new platform models accounted for 42%. In 2022, the company’s new car cycle will continue. At present, among the models that have been determined to be listed in 2022: in terms of Haval brand, Haval cool dog is the second heavy-duty model of Haval dog. In terms of Euler brand, the listing of ballet cat, punk cat and lightning cat will further enrich the company’s product matrix in the field of pure electricity. In terms of wey brand, mocha dht-phev equipped with lemon hybrid DHT has been put on pre-sale, and dream fulfillment will also be launched within the year.
System reform and technological innovation build the company’s long-term core competitiveness. The company changed the underlying structure, changed its corporate positioning from “automobile manufacturing enterprise” to “user service operation enterprise”, and changed its business model to “product + software + service”, which laid a foundation for it to effectively tap market demand. A number of R & D achievements of the company have been implemented successively. At present, lemon DHT hybrid technology, hydrogen energy related technology, 3.0T + 9at / 9hat super powertrain and other technologies have been carried on the products, and Dayu battery technology and cobalt free battery will also be applied to new energy vehicles. In the critical period of electric intelligent reform in the automotive industry, the company is an independent vehicle enterprise that has earlier transformed and implemented relevant products, and the hot sales in the terminal market confirm the strong market competitiveness of the company’s products. In the long run, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) which has accumulated core technology is expected to accelerate the development of new tracks in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: the company has been deeply engaged in the field of electrification and intelligence for many years, actively promoted the new car cycle in 2021, and accelerated its development under the opportunity of the rise of independent new energy. We are optimistic about the far-reaching impact of the company’s underlying structure reform and the long-term core competitiveness built by technology accumulation. Considering the impact of the rising price of raw materials and the shortage of automobile chips, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222023 to be 8.73 billion yuan and 11.08 billion yuan respectively (the previous value was 10.53 billion yuan and 12.21 billion yuan), and the corresponding EPS were 94 and 120 yuan respectively (the previous value was 1.15 and 1.33 yuan). It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 12.65 billion yuan and 1.37 yuan respectively. The closing price on April 8, 2022 corresponds to the PE value from 2022 to 2024, which is 28, 22 and 19 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the mitigation of core shortage in the industry is less than expected; The sales volume of passenger cars is lower than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The development of new energy technology is less than expected.
