Reviewing the A-share market last week, the characteristics of stock game are still the same, and the overall market is dominated by shock. On Friday, A-Shares rebounded from the bottom in the morning, and the Shanghai index rose further in the afternoon, then gradually fell back and maintained shock consolidation, while the Shenzhen Composite Index and gem index were relatively weak.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the index entered the box shock pattern after a sharp decline in the early stage, in the absence of favorable stimulus, the upside space of the index is relatively limited, and the overall trend of the current market is weak, so it is not ruled out that there is the possibility of continuing to bottom down in the short term . In terms of operation, we can focus on the varieties with sufficient adjustment in the early stage and whose fundamentals cannot be verified, or the direction with fair prosperity and deterministic performance in the first quarter, and carry out low absorption in batches.
In terms of the future market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) mentioned that the current stock index is more likely to maintain the range shock, and it still needs external stimulation to break the market situation in the future . It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the gem is more likely. We suggest that investors should pay close attention to the investment opportunities in engineering infrastructure, finance and cyclical industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) believes that it is difficult to have a style or a track running through the whole year in 2022, the high and low rotation of different industries and investment themes will be the main theme of the whole year . This year, we should pay more attention to the investment opportunities of reversing fundamental difficulties and improving policy expectations; At the same time, in the macro environment of "quasi stagflation" in China in the second quarter, we should pay attention to the sectors with high valuation and performance cost performance.
Specifically: (I) "steady growth" and "wide credit" are still the key policy support directions , while infrastructure and real estate are the two main focuses of steady growth and wide credit, and the latter will play an increasingly important role. There are still allocation opportunities in the second quarter of this year, focusing on the large financial and real estate infrastructure industry chain with low Pb (real estate, building materials and construction machinery).
(II) focus on the sectors benefiting from the impact of economic stagflation and geopolitical crisis , focusing on agriculture, gold, chemical fertilizers and pesticides.
(III) track stocks may usher in a certain investment window period 4, A-Shares will enter an intensive quarterly disclosure period; Since the substantial adjustment of the market in March, many companies have also disclosed their operating data from January to February in advance; As the disclosure period of the first quarterly report approaches, track stocks may usher in a certain investment window period. Focus on semiconductor, medicine, automobile intelligence and other tracks that benefit from the boom of downstream demand and large long-term space.
(IV) for the consumption sector, the opportunity is better in the second half of 2022 on the one hand, China's economic pressure remained high in the first half of the year, and the epidemic and imported inflation would significantly suppress the middle and lower reaches; On the other hand, from the month on month prediction, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is more likely to rise in the second half of this year, which also indicates that the recovery of the overall economic heat needs to wait for the second half of this year.
It is worth noting that what is the current market worried about Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pointed out that worry (I): there is a market bottom after the policy bottom the biggest difference between the current market adjustment process and historical experience is that the performance comes faster at the end. The experience of "policy bottom - market bottom" in the history of resumption of trading shows that the market bottom appears around February after the policy end in 2015 and 2018. Specifically, the market fluctuated one and a half months after the end of the policy, and the market quickly adjusted to the bottom in the last half month. However, looking at the time of the end of the performance, the end of the performance in 2015 is about half a year away from the end of the policy, and the end of the performance in 2018 is more than a year away from the end of the policy. The bottom probability of this performance is in the second quarter, that is, the bottom of performance may come faster.
worry (II): continuous fermentation of external uncertainties 1) the stagflation risk of developed economies such as the United States may be the most worried by the market. At present, there are great market differences in the judgment of energy prices. We believe that the biggest supply side pressure on crude oil prices may come from the expansion of shale oil production. The capital expenditure plans of the five major US shale oil companies have been significantly improved. In the capital expenditure structure, some companies have made it clear that most of the capital expenditure is spent on the development of stock oil fields rather than long-term exploration; 2) In addition, the market is generally worried that the narrowing or even upside down of the term interest spread of US bonds will have a significant impact on the US stock market.
worry (III): negative feedback risk of capital 1) the short-term phased outflow of foreign capital does not change the long-term trend. At the present stage, foreign capital can be regarded as long-term stable incremental capital. First, there is a weak positive correlation between the inflow and outflow of foreign capital and the performance of the A-share market on that day; Secondly, we counted the overall market performance after foreign capital inflows and outflows of more than 10 billion and 900-1 billion. In fact, there is no obvious law; 2) Fixed income + public funds and bank financial management with low risk appetite face certain negative feedback risk of redemption, which significantly disturbs the market risk appetite. The overall shareholding scale of these funds is 460 billion, of which the shareholding scale of public offering products is only 130 billion, and the shareholding scale of fixed income financial products is only 330 billion. The overall scale is small, and the negative feedback risk of actual redemption and sale is generally controllable.
According to the further analysis of the agency, under the defensive idea, the undervalued value is preferred, but when A-Shares change from defensive to offensive, A-Shares may usher in a growth moment . At present, the core difference for new energy and other tracks lies in whether the performance is at an inflection point. In the track investment, the research and judgment of the inflection point of the growth curve is the most critical. For example, apple mobile phone shipments ushered in a downward inflection point in 2017, and the relevant sectors have obviously continued to adjust. Take new energy vehicles as an example. Since 2019, the continuous excess return of the sector has been accompanied by the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles.
Guoyuan Securities Company Limited(000728) said that the current market is at the bottom stage, waiting patiently for stability and improvement, but the negative factor still exists . Looking forward to the future, the negative factors that continue to suppress the recent market sentiment still exist. The market is still in the bottom grinding stage, and the rebound may not reverse significantly. It may enter the "bottom building" and "bottom grinding" stages, and there are initial signs of stabilization. There are still fluctuations in the short term, but from the perspective of the medium term, the opportunities outweigh the risks, and the layout cost performance is realized one by one.
In the macro aspect, Dongguan Securities pointed out that from the perspective of the market environment, internal and external factors such as the rebound of China's epidemic, the continuation of peripheral conflicts and the accelerated contraction policy of the Federal Reserve have formed new downward pressure on China's economy. In view of the impact of the recent epidemic, the national Standing Committee strengthened the relief of micro entities and the protection of employment, and pointed out that it is necessary to make timely and flexible use of a variety of monetary policy tools to give better play to the dual functions of aggregate and structure.
it is expected that specific positive policies will be introduced in the future to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and promote the financing increment of small, medium and micro enterprises .
In addition, BOCI Securities mentioned that pays attention to traditional infrastructure in the short term and digital infrastructure in the long term . In the short term, traditional infrastructure has directly benefited from steady growth. From January to February, the infrastructure investment made a good start, the commencement of local major projects was significantly ahead of schedule, and the bidding amount was significantly accelerated. It is suggested to focus on it in the short term; In the long run, digital infrastructure is more in line with the requirements of China's economy towards high-quality development. The industry has more growth and more room to make up for its shortcomings compared with the old infrastructure. In the long run, we do not attach importance to the conflict between the traditional infrastructure development strategy and the new one.
In terms of operational strategy, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) pointed out that currently buying stocks is like "driving in fog", and the visibility is reduced. It is suggested to select stocks around the certainty of performance . In addition to cycle manufacturing, we should also see that the continuation of the epidemic will also increase the allocation value brought by the supply contraction of some consumer industries recommend three directions: 1) dividend strategy: coal, chemical resources and finance; 2) To G end or public investment direction: wind power, power grid, construction, etc; 3) the dilemma reversal: pig, Baijiu and consumer services, focusing on the bottom elasticity of consumer goods, building materials, steel and light industrial sectors in the Q2 part of the middle reaches.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that currently underestimated steady growth areas still have phased relative allocation value . At present, focuses on three directions : 1) in the "bottom grinding" stage of the market, the stable growth sector with relatively low valuation may still have relative benefits in the current macro environment, such as traditional infrastructure, real estate stable demand and related industrial chains (real estate, building materials, construction, household appliances, home appliances, etc.); 2) The manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has released some risks, but the turnaround lies in the marginal improvement of "stagflation" risk, global liquidity and market sentiment factors; 3) For the middle and lower reaches consumption with more adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects in 2021, stock selection from bottom to top includes household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc.
