abandon the trend, persist, and the visionary advances steadily investors’ traditional empirical understanding of “monetary easing – credit easing” and “policy easing – recovery of real estate sales” in the past is facing challenges. For example, the expectation of the residential sector that house prices will only rise but not fall has been reversed. The same expected effect will inevitably require greater relaxation. However, this conflicts with the current requirements of high-quality development. Therefore, due to the absence of short-term monetary policy and relatively slow fiscal stimulus, it is difficult to achieve rapid improvement of risk appetite in the stage of misplaced policy expectations between China and the United States; Similarly, pessimistic economic expectations and the priority of epidemic prevention and control are not conducive to the repair of enterprise profit expectations. The complicated geopolitics magnified the above contradiction: the decline of profit expectation and the high fluctuation of discount rate expectation. At present, stock investment is like driving in fog. The key to winning is to find stocks with undervalued value, performance and high dividend. The fog will eventually dissipate and spring will eventually come, but before the credit path is clear, the abandonment trend is persistent and still fluctuates sideways.
continue to change positions and pay attention to the revaluation of assets and cash flow value although the valuation of growth assets such as “track stocks” has been greatly squeezed, we still suggest that investors should continue to change positions and change positions in the rebound, so as not to win for a moment. The speed of this round of adjustment is rapid, the chip concentration of institutional investors has not been effectively reduced, and growth assets still need a long time to digest the micro trading structure; Secondly, the contraction of the private sector balance sheet is making the growing downstream demand face fluctuations, and the profit expectation is “good but difficult to be better”. However, the market does not lack investment opportunities: in the economic slowdown stage of the structural transformation period, the dependence of growth on traditional sectors increases rather than decreases, which leads to the convergence of tail risk pricing such as real estate and platform economy. More importantly, both supply side reform and energy consumption control are improving the return on assets of some traditional economic sectors. This means that companies with physical assets and stable cash flow have very high investment value at present, and the value style will rotate internally, but the revaluation is not over.
the interest rate difference between China and the United States is almost upside down, and the investment style needs to be switched due to the restrictions of cross-border transactions, the interest rate spread between China and the United States expresses the transaction results and expected changes of different market entities. For Chinese investors, it is more signal significance than cross-border comparison. The Federal Reserve is eager to tame inflation by curbing investment and consumer demand, while supply contradiction and geopolitics are more likely to point to global stagflation, which will instead push up US dollar demand and style switching. Although the current round of adjustment of A-Shares comes more from internal factors, due to the high overlap between the heavy positions of A-Shares of overseas investors and the positions of Chinese institutional investors (market consumption growth and new energy), the most direct impact of China US interest rate spread on A-Shares lies in the disturbance of this part of funds to the trading structure.
win and then fight, and grasp the certainty of performance before the credit path is clear, the current stock purchase is like “driving in fog”, and the visibility is reduced. It is suggested to select stocks around the certainty of performance. In addition to cycle manufacturing, we should also see that the continuation of the epidemic will also increase the allocation value brought by the supply contraction of some consumer industries. Three directions are recommended: 1) dividend strategy: coal, chemical resources and finance; 2) To G end or public investment direction: wind power, power grid, construction, etc; 3) the dilemma reversal: pig, Baijiu and consumer services, focusing on the bottom elasticity of consumer goods, building materials, steel and light industrial sectors in the Q2 part of the middle reaches.
