Main view of overseas market in one week: this week, the global market still continues the high wave dynamic trend. Recently, growth stocks in U.S. stocks continued to show a significant correction, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 7.32% this week. At this stage, the growth stocks of US stocks have not stabilized, and the volatility of the information technology industry is still high. It is expected that the correction pressure will further spread to the field of biotechnology in the future. Among the value stocks of US stocks, there has been a significant correction in the fields of non essential consumption, finance and industry, and there will be fluctuations in the future; It is expected that the pressure on us value stocks will be further transmitted to public utilities, real estate and essential consumption in the future. Considering that the valuation of US stocks is still high at this stage, the US bond yield curve has also been inverted, the US economy has a trend of transition from quasi stagflation period to stagflation period, and the monetary policy of the federal reserve tends to be further tightened, it is expected that the US stock market has not stabilized at this stage. Considering that the valuation of the European market has no obvious advantages at this stage and is vulnerable to the linkage impact of the US stock market, combined with the consideration of tightening liquidity by the European Central Bank, it is expected that the European market will adjust in the future. From the perspective of emerging markets, Sri Lanka’s market has fluctuated significantly since the first quarter of this year. Considering that the liquidity of the Federal Reserve is in the tightening stage, it is expected that the stock markets of Southeast Asia, Latin America and other overseas emerging markets will still fluctuate sharply in the future, and there will still be significant pressure on the bond and foreign exchange markets of many overseas emerging markets. There was a correction in the Hong Kong stock market this week. Considering the weight proportion of different industries in the Hong Kong stock index at this stage, it is expected that the volatility of Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China enterprise index will still be lower than that of Hang Seng technology index in the future. Considering the valuation advantages and good resilience of fundamentals, it is expected that Hang Seng H-share financial industry will still have a certain resilience in the medium term. Considering the current capital construction cycle, it is expected that there will be good opportunities for rise in the medium term of construction projects; Among them, the resilience of large state-owned infrastructure related enterprises is relatively good, and the related benefit targets are China’s transportation construction, China Railway Group Limited(601390) , China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) , etc.
Performance of US stock market in one week: all three major US stock indexes fell this week. The S & P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones industrial index fell by 1.27%, 3.86% and 0.28% respectively.
Hong Kong stock market performance in one week: Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China enterprise index and Hang Seng technology index all fell this week, with declines of 0.76%, 0.62% and 2.24% respectively.
Important overseas economic data: in March 2022, the PMI of Markit’s US service industry was 58, higher than the previous value of 56.5.
Risk tip: the Fed’s monetary policy exceeded expectations; Economic growth is less than expected; The intensification of global geopolitical risks; Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; Global black swan event.
