The coking coal of the steel plant resumed work, and the market of the first quarter report is expected to continue
The price of thermal coal fell slightly this week. The closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang is currently 1270 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the safety inspection of some coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia affected the release of output, the overall supply was tightened, and the epidemic affected the coal transportation capacity, so the shipment of coal mines was general. In terms of demand, with the end of the northern heating season and the impact of the epidemic, the operating rate of factories and enterprises weakened, the daily consumption of power plants fell sharply, the inventory was in a passive state of accumulation, and the downstream power plants took a wait-and-see attitude towards procurement. Overall, due to the weather and epidemic situation, the weakening demand led to the continuous decline of coal prices, but the callback momentum slowed down, but there is no strong downward pressure, and it is still expected to remain high in the long term. In the later stage, with the epidemic situation under control and the start of enterprises and factories, there may be no expectations of significant easing in the fundamentals of the whole year. The steady growth policy will stimulate the demand for infrastructure construction, and the vacancy of thermal power may be supplemented by industrial power enterprises. In terms of supply, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China was held in 2022. On April 1, the central government held a national safety production teleconference to comprehensively deploy and strengthen safety production. It is expected that the security inspection will be strengthened throughout the year. The release of 300 million tons of coal production capacity originally planned by the national development and Reform Commission may not meet the expectation, and the supply of producing areas is tight. There is no expectation of loose supply in 2022, and the coal price may remain high. In terms of policy, it still pays more attention to the long-term association than the spot. The promotion effect of the signing of the long-term association in Inner Mongolia and Shandong is obvious. With the implementation of the requirement of 100% long-term association coverage of power coal enterprises, the spot coal source may be further scarce in the future, and the spot price has a strong upward momentum. At present, coking coal prices are not subject to policy control. Although affected by the epidemic in the short term, coking coal prices still have an upward trend. In the future, tight supply and “steady growth” will stimulate demand, and the upward certainty of coking coal prices is high. This week, Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) released the first quarter performance forecast, and Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) released the first quarter operation data. The Q1 performance of coal enterprises increased significantly year-on-year. We believe that the current coal sector still has high allocation value and are optimistic about the market of the sector. Objects benefiting from steady performance and high dividend: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Objects expected to benefit from growth: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: power coal fell slightly this week, and the callback momentum slowed down
The price of thermal coal fell slightly this week (April 4-april 8, 2022). The closing price of q5500 thermal coal in QinGang is currently 1270 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the safety inspection of some coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia affected the output, the overall supply was tight, the epidemic affected the coal transportation capacity, and the coal mine shipment was general. In terms of demand, with the end of the northern heating season and the impact of the epidemic, the operating rate of factories and enterprises weakened, the daily consumption of power plants fell sharply, the inventory was in a passive state of accumulation, and the downstream power plants took a wait-and-see attitude towards procurement. Overall, due to the weather and epidemic situation, the weakening demand led to the reasonable correction of power coal price, but the correction momentum slowed down. In the later stage, as the epidemic situation is controlled, enterprises and factories start to operate, the demand for electricity in the downstream increases, and the power coal may rise again.
Coal coke steel industry chain: Double coke is stable this week, and the demand for steel mills to resume production and replenish storage in an orderly manner increases
Coke: coke price remained stable this week. The northern epidemic has been unsealed, Tangshan steel mills have resumed production in an orderly manner, steel mill inventories have fallen slightly, the willingness to replenish inventories has increased, and the demand side is strong; On the supply side, due to the impact of the epidemic, coke enterprises have difficulty in shipping, and the supply is relatively small. Coking coal: coking coal prices are stable this week. In terms of demand, the demand for replenishment of coke plants increased, but the epidemic affected the shipment, blocked the inventory accumulation of upstream coal mines, and the inventory of coke plants was tight; On the supply side, due to the impact of the epidemic and the pressure of security inspection, the output of coking coal decreased slightly; At the import end, the price of imported coal continued to rise, and the import of Mongolian coal also decreased due to the epidemic. Overall, we believe that the current double coke fundamentals are still preferred. In the later stage, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the demand will increase significantly. At the same time, the infrastructure force of the steady growth policy will drive the demand. The coking coal market is very good throughout the year.
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
