\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 105 Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) )
The revenue structure was further optimized, and the contribution of distributed photovoltaic power station investment and operation to revenue increased year by year. The company focuses on the construction of self-sustaining power stations with “self use and surplus power on the Internet”, and continues to optimize the business structure and actively expand relevant new businesses around the main business. In terms of self owned distributed photovoltaic power station business, the proportion of power generation revenue in the main business revenue continues to rise, accounting for 89.85% and 81.26% of the total operating revenue by 2021h1 and 2020 respectively, becoming the main source of revenue of the company.
The policy of “promoting the whole county” further opens up the space of China’s distributed photovoltaic market. According to the data of the national energy administration, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China in 2021 was 54.88gw, of which distributed accounted for 53.35%. We expect that in the future, with the promotion of policies such as the whole county, distributed photovoltaic will maintain a high boom.
Roof resources have strong development ability, forming strong customer stickiness and brand effect. The company has made remarkable achievements in obtaining roof resources, especially industrial roof resources. As of June 30, 2021, a total of 10.67 million square meters of roof resources have been obtained, with a year-on-year increase of 6.81%, involving 751 industrial enterprises, with an annual power generation capacity of 1.019 billion kwh. The total installed capacity of self-supporting power stations connected to the grid is about 564mw, with a year-on-year increase of 17.83%, forming a strong customer stickiness and brand effect. We expect that the installed capacity of the company’s self-sustaining power station will increase steadily in the future.
The electricity price has entered the rising cycle, and the performance of the company is flexible. Considering the impact of load growth and new energy consumption demand, China’s transmission and distribution electricity price will basically show an upward trend. At present, many provinces and cities have issued documents, and the transaction price of high-energy consuming enterprises has increased significantly, and the green power demand of high-energy consuming enterprises has increased significantly. According to the transaction data of green power in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong, the premium of green power compared with the benchmark price of coal power is about 0.061-0.072 yuan / kWh. The company’s future stock and new self-supporting power stations are expected to benefit from the rise of electricity price and green power premium, the company’s profit is expected to be thickened and the performance flexibility is large.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 21 to 23 years to be RMB 111 / 210 / 287 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 37.0% / 89.5% / 36.8% and EPS of RMB 0.22/0.42/0.57. We will give the company a target valuation of 35 times PE in 22 years, the corresponding target price is RMB 14.70, and give a “buy” rating for the first coverage.
Risk tips: market development risk, roof lease stability risk, accounts receivable bad debt risk
