\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 919 Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) )
Events
Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) ( Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) ) released the 2021 annual report, realizing an operating revenue of 333694 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94.85%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 89.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 799.52%, a basic earnings per share of 5.59 yuan, and a cash dividend of 0.87 yuan (including tax) per share. During the reporting period, the profit before interest and tax (EBIT) was 131.5 billion yuan (equivalent to about 20.38 billion US dollars). The company issued a pre increase announcement for Q1 in 2022. The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 was 27.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.6%.
Comments
1. During the reporting period of 2021, the average value of China's export container freight rate composite index (CCFI) was 261554 points, with a year-on-year increase of 165.69%. This is the main reason for the sharp increase in profits. The average value of CCFI during Q1 in 2022 is about 3400, which is still higher than the average value of 21 years.
2. After 22 years of overseas entering the post epidemic era, port congestion and tight supply chain tend to ease, resulting in the decline of centralized transportation prices. We predict that if there is no black swan event, the high point in Q1 of 22 may be the highest freight rate of the whole year. However, the freight rate and duration of the company's recent signing of long-term association orders are expected to rise. At the same time, the proportion of long-term transportation capacity this year is expected to exceed 50% of the company's total transportation capacity. These measures can delay the decline of long-term profits caused by the decline of freight rates.
3. The company's port business continues to grow slightly and provides assistance for centralized transportation; At the same time, the trading volume of foreign trade e-commerce platform increased by 187% year-on-year in 21 years, which also provides convenience for subsequent collection of goods.
Investment rating
Our calculation of the company's performance in the next three years is based on the assumption that CCFI can return to the average level of Q1 in 2024. The dividends in the next two years are worth looking forward to and are rated "buy". It is estimated that the EPS in the next three years will be 6.02, 4.71 and 2.79 respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 2.58, 3.30 and 5.57 respectively.
Risk tips
The high oil price lasts too long and the international shipping price drops too fast.
