\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 590 Beijing Konruns Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603590) )
Core view
Event: the company plans to purchase all the rights of its traditional Chinese medicine innovative drug Jincao tablet (Ajuga extract, mainly composed of Total Iridoid Glycosides, category 1.2 traditional Chinese Medicine) from harmony Zhongchuang for 134 million yuan. China's first innovative variety of traditional Chinese medicine with the indication of "sequelae of pelvic inflammatory disease chronic pelvic pain", and the product is about to enter clinical phase III. The market of chronic pelvic pain caused by pelvic inflammation targeted by Jincao tablet is blue ocean, and it cooperates with migaixi
At present, the market scale of oral drugs for gynecological inflammation is nearly 5 billion yuan. The number of patients with gynecological pelvic inflammatory disease in China is about 50 million. There are many products for the treatment of pelvic inflammatory disease on the market. The main traditional Chinese medicines include gynecological Qianjin tablets (capsules), Jinying capsules and Huahong capsules. Gynecology gold is the leader, and the sales volume is at the level of one billion yuan. Most products of pelvic inflammatory disease have a wide range of approved indications, which are difficult to meet the requirements of clinical application of Western medicine. There is no patent medicine for the sequelae of pelvic inflammatory disease and chronic pelvic pain on the market. The population of chronic pelvic pain is about 10 million, and the market prospect is broad. Jincao tablet coincides with migaixi (salmon calcitonin injection), an osteoporosis product being sold by the company, and has a synergistic effect.
The phase II clinical trial of Jincao tablet shows definite curative effect, good safety and tolerance. The probability of listing after phase III is high. The phase II clinical trial of Jincao tablet adopts a multi center, randomized, double-blind, dose parallel control and placebo-controlled trial design. The results showed that the analgesic effect of Jincao tablet was significantly better than that of placebo group, which could significantly reduce the VAS score and significantly improve the pain disappearance rate of patients. In terms of pain disappearance rate, after 12 weeks of continuous treatment, the pain disappearance rates of Jincao tablet high-dose group and low-dose group were 53.45% and 43.33%, which were significantly better than 11.86% in placebo group (P 0.0001). Other efficacy evaluation indexes (including signs, MC Cormack scale score, SF-12 scale score and TCM syndrome score) showed the same efficacy trend. Based on the phase II results, Jincao tablet will carry out a larger phase III confirmatory clinical trial.
Profit forecast and investment rating
In recent years, the company has made a lot of R & D and investment in the fields of cancer, hemostasis and orthopedics. Through independent R & D and introduction of innovative drugs, the company has enriched the pipeline and accumulated a little, including the self-developed first in class multi-target (Axl / VEGFR2 / FLT3, etc.) tumor innovative drug kc1036 into phase Ib / II clinical practice. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 205 / 224 / 269 million yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 1.28/1.40/1.68 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 22.16/20.24/16.86 times respectively, giving the investment rating of "overweight".
Risk warning: the risk of new drug research and development falling short of expectations and market promotion falling short of expectations.
