Recently, due to the shortage of natural gas in Europe and the insufficient operation of zinc smelters, the inventory of Lun zinc registered in LME (hereinafter referred to as "explicit inventory") is decreasing day by day, causing the market to worry about the risk of closing positions of Lun zinc. Industry insiders believe that the zinc production capacity is relatively scattered, the zinc is resistant to storage, and the storage cost accounts for a lower proportion than the value of goods. The explicit inventory is only a reference basis. At present, the demand for zinc in the downstream is low, the inventory in Asia and America is large, and the risk of closing positions in Lun zinc is small.
The smelting process of zinc requires a lot of energy. Due to the geographical conflict, there is a shortage of natural gas in Europe, and the energy price in Europe continues to rise sharply, which has a certain impact on the commencement of zinc smelters in Europe, and some zinc smelters are in the state of shutdown. According to public data, LME zinc dominant inventory showed a trend of shock and decline. On March 8, London time, the dominant inventory of Lun zinc was 6649 hands (25 tons / hand, the same below). By March 25, London time, the dominant inventory of Lun zinc had fallen to 2644 hands, a new low since March 8. On April 6, London time, the dominant inventory of LME zinc was 3926, up 1282 from 2644 when it was the lowest.
China stock market news choice terminal shows that the comprehensive zinc 03 contract traded by LME has gone out of a sharp rise from March 1 to March 10 London time, rising from $3500 / ton to $5000 / ton, up 42.86%. After a short decline, it regained its upward momentum, showing a trend of gradually rising. Since April, from April 1 to April 8 London time, the comprehensive zinc 03 contract has been running above US $4000 / ton. As of the press time of April 8, the contract price of comprehensive zinc 03 was US $4238 / ton.
Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co.Ltd(600961) general manager he Xianzhong told reporters: "at present, the operating rate of zinc refineries in Europe is low, the stock of zinc is very low, and the premium of zinc stock is high. Recently, the warehouse receipts in Singapore have been cancelled by nearly 50%, which is likely to be short. However, there are more than 100000 tons of zinc stocks in Asia and America. From the perspective of downstream demand, China's zinc consumption has not risen, the processing fee at the mine end is low, and the smelter is under great pressure."
Caixin futures analyzed the above situation, It is considered that the risk of closing positions is small: "The explicit inventory data of LME has certain reference significance. The low explicit inventory and the high proportion of written off warehouse receipts will give the feeling of zinc ingot shortage in the market and easily push up the price. However, the global zinc ore and smelting capacity is relatively scattered, the zinc ingot is resistant to storage and easy to keep, the unit storage cost is low, and the quantity of social inventory is inconvenient to be counted. From the consumer side, the reduction of explicit inventory may be related to the strategy of holding goods to rise in the market, not necessarily the downstream industry Enterprises actively consume zinc inventory. Zinc is mainly used in galvanized sheet and galvanized parts, accounting for 45% of the total consumption, mainly in automobiles, building materials and shipbuilding. At present, the downstream is affected by the epidemic and the rising zinc price, the demand is weak, the infrastructure operation rate is low, and the demand for galvanized parts and galvanized sheet is general. "
He further added, "LME shows that the contracts of Lun zinc in each month are upside down in the near and far months, and the near high and far low. The main reason is that the current energy price is high, the production cost of zinc is high, and some manufacturers intend to increase the processing cost. The market converts the recent energy price factor into the contract of Lun zinc in the near months. Due to the sluggish downstream demand and the long-term production capacity is expected to return, we predict that the risk of closing positions of Lun zinc is small. With the return of the energy supply chain to normal, the market will be interested in zinc in the long run Supply and demand will return to normal. "
