Yesterday, real estate ushered in a large-scale ebb tide, and many high-end stocks fell by the limit. Dragged down by the real estate sector, the market weakened comprehensively yesterday, 4000 stocks fell, and the market sentiment returned to the freezing point.
As mentioned in yesterday’s main line, the real estate sector showed a more obvious phenomenon of high and low cut after the emotional climax the day before yesterday. Therefore, yesterday’s differentiation and consolidation was expected as a whole. In this context, the follow-up will focus on whether the money loss effect within the sector can be repaired in time. Due to the deep involvement of funds in the early stage and no new hot spots in the market for fund diversion, the possibility of direct weakening of the real estate sector is low, and there are still repeated opportunities for follow-up probability. However, in the process of emotional repair, it remains to be seen whether the funds will choose to return to the previous high popularity standard or start a new stove to create a new leader in the back row stocks.
With the extension of the real estate industry chain speculation, the closely related infrastructure direction has become active again in the near future.
In terms of fundamentals, according to the investment data from January to February released by the National Bureau of statistics, infrastructure investment increased by 8.1% year-on-year, 7.7 percentage points faster than the whole year of 2021, the number of new projects invested increased by 1.1 times year-on-year, and the total planned investment of new projects increased by 62.8%. On the whole, the infrastructure industry has made a good start.
From the perspective of funds, the speed of issuance of new special bonds by local governments is more significant. This year, the state plans to arrange 3.65 trillion yuan of special bonds for local governments, adding that the physical workload of 1.2 trillion yuan of special bonds in the fourth quarter of 2021 will be transferred to this year. Therefore, a total of 4.85 trillion yuan of special bonds can be used for specific projects this year. In addition, the CSRC is studying and formulating the raising rules of infrastructure REITs. With the continuous improvement of REITs system and the gradual increase of new products, the infrastructure industry will attract more social capital to participate in investment and usher in new incremental funds.
Chuancai Securities believes that infrastructure construction was almost in a “clear card” state in the first half of the year, which is to play a role in stabilizing the economy and employment. It is a sector with high certainty. Therefore, the market has better expectations for the performance growth of the infrastructure sector. This expectation hedges the disturbance caused by bad factors to the market to a certain extent.
Then, with the arrival of the traditional peak season in the second quarter, can the infrastructure sector replace the real estate as the new main line of the market, or can we pay attention to the following two points?
One is that Hainan Ruize New Building Material Co.Ltd(002596) and Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) leading stocks must further open up upward space. At present, Hainan Ruize New Building Material Co.Ltd(002596) yesterday, after a whole day’s sawing, it was successfully sealed at the end of the day, with a leading temperament; And Xinjiang Guotong Pipeline Co.Ltd(002205) even staged the “Earth Sky board” the day before yesterday. When the above two stocks further push up the board, it is bound to attract more funds to settle in the infrastructure. The second is that when there are short-term differences in the infrastructure sector, it can withstand the inertia of differentiation and reverse strong repair the next day, which is also one of the characteristics of the main line sector.
