Today (April 8), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened high across the board. After the shock consolidation at the beginning of the session, the stock index plunged back rapidly, then stabilized by shock, rose violently and turned red, maintained near yesterday’s closing point, and continued to rise in the afternoon.
From the disk perspective, precious metals protected the sector in the morning and made great financial efforts in the afternoon. Phosphorus chemical industry, cement building materials, digital currency and other sectors also performed prominently. In the real estate development sector, as of press time, Sichuan Languang Development Co.Ltd(600466) , China-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park Development Group Co.Ltd(601512) , Everbright Jiabao Co.Ltd(600622) , China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) , Tianjin Tianbao Infrastructure Co.Ltd(000965) , Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) , etc. rose by the limit. Among them, China Wuyi Co.Ltd(000797) has realized six connected boards.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) believes that the impact of the epidemic on China’s economy has begun to be gradually reflected in the economic data, and the data in March and the second quarter are expected to be poor. In the short term, under the influence of the continuous fermentation of China’s epidemic, the market still takes steady growth and upstream resources as the main line, but the fluctuation or aggravation, control the position and wait for the improvement of macro data and the marginal change of enterprise micro operation.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let’s see what themes are available for reference.
[theme 1] real estate development
Capital Securities said that the high-level statement released positive signals and the policy window period came. At present, the downward trend of industry fundamentals continues. In the first half of March, the sales area of high-frequency data decreased by 50.1% year-on-year, the de urbanization rate of new opening decreased significantly to 34%, and the de urbanization cycle of key cities increased significantly. Some private real estate enterprises are facing the pressure of debt payment in the short term, and there is a serious lack of confidence at both ends of supply and demand. At present, it is urgent to control the real estate risk. The high-level meeting made it clear that it is important to deal with the industry risk. To open up the industry liquidity chain, we should take the lead in seeing the recovery of sales, and the restoration of house purchase confidence urgently needs policy support. The relaxation of the policy has been made clear after the high-level statement. We judge that the adjustment time window for the four limit policy in key cities is in the second half of March. The statement on the real estate tax eliminated a major negative factor that suppressed demand during the year.
Wanlian Securities pointed out that under the macro background of “stable growth”, the fundamentals of the current real estate industry continue to bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Shenyin Wanguo Securities mentioned that real estate is still the pillar industry of China’s national economy, and the contribution of the industry itself and the industrial chain to GDP accounts for nearly 30%. However, at present, under the multiple regulation and financial difficulties, the impact on the economy may gradually enter the low drag stage. In view of the recent frequent voices of the government emphasizing stabilizing the economy, steady growth and preventing and controlling financial risks, while stabilizing the economy urgently needs to stabilize the real estate, it is expected that the policy repair at both ends of supply and demand of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and will promote the optimization of the industry pattern and further enhance the concentration, and the high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to usher in both quantity and quality.
[Theme 2] cement building materials
Guosheng Securities said that in the short term, due to the impact of epidemic control, demand recovered, cement prices fluctuated, and inventory pressure increased; In the medium term, the stable growth of credit is expected to rise, the issuance speed of special bonds is expected to be further accelerated, and the rising momentum of infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the cement price center in the medium term to be higher than that in the same period of previous years. At present, the relative valuations of sector price book ratio and P / E ratio are still at a historically low level, and the industry valuation is also expected to be repaired. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from the market integration in Northeast and North China and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with great business elasticity.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) mentioned that the demand side of the whole year is still resilient, 2022q1 or the low point of the industry. Since Q2, with the year-on-year weakening of the impact of coal price + the opening of price rise, the performance may improve quarter by quarter. In the medium and long term, cement has entered a period of downward demand. In the future, the industry will focus on the opportunities brought by the change of the industry’s supply side under the objectives of “dual control” and “dual carbon”: a) the policy requires that the proportion of benchmark capacity in 2025 will exceed 30%, and the industry’s capacity of 2500t / D and below is expected to withdraw one after another in the future, and the total capacity will shrink by more than 8.6%.
B) the cement industry is expected to be included in carbon trading in the future. The transformation of carbon tax + emission reduction will aggravate the cost pressure of small enterprises, highlight the leading competitive advantage, further expand through mergers and acquisitions, enhance the voice, and gradually raise the price center. On the demand side, it is expected that the Q1 infrastructure side will have a good start in 2022, and the bottom of the real estate side will pick up. In the medium and long term, the cement industry as a whole may develop in the trend of “volume reduction and price increase”. After being included in carbon trading, it may accelerate the improvement of supply side concentration, and the improvement of leading share is expected to support performance growth. From the perspective of dividend yield and valuation, cement companies have high investment performance price ratio.
[Theme 3] major finance
China Post Securities said that the intensive disclosure of the annual report helped the bank valuation repair market and continued to be optimistic about the performance of bank stocks. At present, the valuation of bank shares is generally lower than that of other industries, and it is also near the lowest valuation level in history. As the bank sector enters the intensive disclosure period of 2021 annual report, the valuation repair market of the bank sector is worth looking forward to. The steady growth policy in the second quarter will become the driving force for the performance of the banking industry in the next stage. Relevant stocks with high growth, high-quality assets and deep business moat are expected to receive more market attention.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that for the securities industry, policies are frequent and optimistic about the long-term development of the securities sector. ① A series of policies to promote the construction of securities companies and capital markets (insurance funds, new regulations on income swaps, comprehensive accounts and the full implementation of the registration system) have been introduced one after another, which is beneficial to ficc, wealth management and the industrial chain of large investment banks. ② The uncertainty of long-term profit center has increased: the wealth management business has continued to grow, and the channels, products and investment advisers have benefited deeply; The scale of derivatives maintained rapid growth, new products were launched one after another, the superposition system continued to be standardized, and ficc constituted the core increment; The construction of multi-level capital market has accelerated, and the science and innovation board and the Beijing stock exchange have brought new increment. At the same time, the reform of the registration system has also brought dividends to the stock business system. ③ There is a great contrast between the fundamentals and policies of securities companies and the valuation. The profits of securities companies continue to reach a new high. Relative to roe, they are close to the level of the previous bull market (20152016), but their valuation is still at the bottom 1 / 4 of the historical valuation. We are optimistic about the long-term allocation value of securities companies.
For the insurance industry, interest rates have stabilized and valuation repair is imminent. ① Property insurance, auto insurance and non car co frequency resonance, the competition pattern has stabilized, and the advantages of leading insurance enterprises have expanded. One year after the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, the year-on-year growth of premium income has been significantly improved. At the same time, the premium of non auto insurance has continued to increase; In the medium and long term, the scale effect will be further strengthened. Leading insurance companies are expected to further expand their profit space and strengthen competitive barriers by virtue of their advantages in rates, channels and brands. ② In the short term, due to the contradiction between supply and demand of the industry, the pressure on the liability side of life insurance is significant.
In addition, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities said that the wealth management industry chain has broad development space under the new development stage. At present, China’s economy has shifted to the high-quality development stage, with China’s GDP exceeding 100 trillion yuan and per capita GDP exceeding US $1 trillion. Residents’ wealth has accumulated rapidly, the scale of investable assets has increased rapidly, and the transformation of asset allocation from physical assets to financial assets has accelerated. With the positioning of the policy of “housing, housing and non speculation”, the breaking of the rigid exchange of bank financial management, the acceleration of net worth transformation and the decline of interest rates, the increasing proportion of residents’ equity asset allocation is a general trend, which brings growth space to the wealth management market. At the same time, the expansion of wealth management institutions, the continuous enrichment of products and the creation of more financial products to meet the needs of family wealth management in the market also contribute to the development and growth of the wealth management market. Big wealth management business is a medium – and long-term high-quality track for securities companies, and the business space of selling financial products on a commission basis, participating in and holding public funds, asset management and other businesses in the industrial chain is expanded.
In addition, the institutional business has a broad growth space and has become an important driving force for securities companies. The ecological transformation of the capital market and the emergence of the institutionalization trend provide opportunities for the development of the institutional business of securities companies. The business needs of institutional brokerage, sales, custody outsourcing, trading, risk prevention and control related to institutional customers have increased. The continuous release of policy dividends provides a favorable environment for securities companies to carry out institutional trading services. At the same time, the change of market investors, the development and growth of institutional investors, the improvement of market volatility, the growth of customer hedging, risk hedging and diversification strategy construction demand promote the development of institutional trading services. Head securities companies have benefited deeply by virtue of business qualification, capital strength, customer resources and risk control ability.
[Topic 4] precious metals
East Asia Qianhai securities mentioned that gold entered an important allocation time point. Gold market is highly liquid, and market expectation often plays an important role. Looking back on the past six interest rate hikes, the average rise and fall of gold in the year, half a year and one month before the Fed’s interest rate hike were 10.37%, – 0.99% and – 1.32% respectively; The average increase and decrease in the following year, half a year and one month were 6.67%, 7.81% and 0.02% respectively. The performance of the gold market after the interest rate increase is better than that before the interest rate increase, indicating that the release of market concerns has played a positive role in promoting the gold price.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) pointed out that the winning rate of bullish gold is high in the coming year. 1) The inflection point of structural high inflation after the epidemic is approaching, and the lethality of this factor to negative interest rate bonds will weaken.
2) the US economy may slow down in Q4, and the risk of recession next year is very high. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine triggers a supply chain crisis, the United States and even the world will usher in an economic recession earlier. In the coming year, the profitability of US stocks will gradually weaken, and the demands of institutional investors for the allocation of safe assets such as gold will rise.
3) the expectation of table contraction has been partially digested. The probability of 10-year US bond yield breaking 2.5% is not high, and the peak is expected to be before and after the landing of table contraction boots. With the landing of the scale reduction boots, the approach of the mid-term election and the emergence of downward pressure on the economy, the yield of 10-year US bonds may enter the downward cycle from the end of Q2 to the beginning of Q3. The scale of global negative interest rate bonds is expected to rebound again, and gold will also rebound for about a year. The value of gold is still very significant on the left.
Minsheng Securities believes that gold allocation opportunities are coming. Compared with gold, the value fluctuation of gold stocks is also affected by its fundamentals and other factors, resulting in the volatility of gold index greater than gold price. When analyzing the performance elasticity, we should focus on the proportion of mineral gold output, the comprehensive cost of controlling gold and the planning of increasing production and storage. As the trend fluctuation of the cost of mining gold relative to the gold price is negligible, the rise of gold price can directly lead to the rise of the profit of mineral gold business, and the performance with high proportion of mineral gold has greater flexibility to the performance of gold price.
