Key investment points:
China's monetary and fiscal policy
Reverse repurchase: the central bank announced that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of RMB 10 billion was carried out by means of interest rate bidding on April 7, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.10%. Today, 150 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, so a net return of 140 billion yuan was made on that day. (issued by the central bank)
Industrial policy: six ministries and commissions including the Ministry of industry and information technology have issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the petrochemical and chemical industry in the 14th five year plan. By 2025, the petrochemical and chemical industry will basically form a high-quality development pattern with strong independent innovation ability, reasonable structural layout, green, safe and low-carbon, greatly improve the guarantee ability of high-end products and significantly enhance its core competitiveness; The production concentration of bulk chemical products was further improved, and the capacity utilization rate reached more than 80%; The guarantee level of ethylene equivalent has been greatly improved, and the guarantee level of new chemical materials has reached more than 75%; Strictly control the new production capacity of oil refining, ammonium phosphate, calcium carbide, yellow phosphorus and other industries, prohibit the new production capacity of mercury (poly) vinyl chloride, and accelerate the exit of inefficient and backward production capacity. (issued by the Ministry of industry and information technology)
Overseas monetary and fiscal policy
[fed] the minutes of the Fed meeting show that the FOMC supports the reduction of the upper limit for three months or more. If it were not for the conflict in Ukraine, many Fed members might ask for a 50 basis point increase in interest rates in March. FOMC supports the monthly reduction of the national debt asset ceiling to $60 billion and mortgage-backed securities to $35 billion.
[Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve Balkin said it was time to start normalizing interest rates. The economy no longer needs the fed to implement an active monetary policy. The Fed still has 9-10 interest rate hikes from FOMC's neutral interest rate expectation. FOMC will soon begin to normalize its balance sheet. If we want to shrink the table, the rate increase will slow down.
[Poland] the Central Bank of Poland raised the key interest rate to 4.5%, which is expected to be 4%.
[Japan] Yukio Noguchi, a member of the Bank of Japan, said that the deflationary thinking has not completely changed. The benefits of a weak yen outweigh the disadvantages for the Japanese economy. A stronger yen is more painful for the Japanese economy, because Japan's primary task is to get rid of deflation and low inflation.
[Japan] Yukio Noguchi, member of the Bank of Japan, said that with the impact of the pandemic and the easing of supply restrictions, Japan's economy may continue to recover and it will still take some time to reach the price target; Japan's core consumer inflation will accelerate to about 2% from April and may accelerate further, depending on the trend of global commodity prices; The rising prices of energy and raw materials have led to the deterioration of Japan's terms of trade, and the impact of the weak yen is very limited.
Risk tip: the epidemic spreads beyond expectations, overseas tightens beyond expectations, and global inflation intensifies
