Macro categories:
In the near future, China's steady growth is expected to continue to be supported: in addition to the previous statement of the national standing committee that it should make timely use of monetary policy tools to more effectively support the development of the real economy China Railway Group Limited(601390) first quarter business data showed that the newly signed contract amount in the first quarter was 605.74 billion yuan, an increase of 84% year-on-year, which verified that the steady growth policy of infrastructure is expected to work; Moreover, the number of cities that have relaxed the real estate policy in China is also increasing. The follow-up also needs to focus on the changes of micro data.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March significantly increased the probability of raising interest rates by 50bp at the meeting in May, and the table reduction process was far more than expected. It is planned to reduce the scale of assets held by the Federal Reserve by up to $95 billion per month, while the highest scale of the previous table reduction is $50 billion per month. The last round of contraction was obviously bad for financial assets, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of global stock index in the future. Since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with financial assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rate as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; However, the correlation between the Fed's balance sheet and commodities was low, recording 0.56.
In terms of commodities. At the macro level, China's three major PMIS significantly adjusted in March. Under the repeated impact of China's epidemic, the three major indexes of official manufacturing, non manufacturing and comprehensive PMI fell in March. At present, the severe epidemic situation in Shanghai will also drag down the follow-up export of China. At the micro level, the real estate and infrastructure with high correlation with commodity demand have not yet made significant efforts: as of the week of April 7, the output of thread, factory warehouse and social warehouse have changed from decline to increase, and the social library has ended the previous four consecutive weeks of decline. According to our latest research, affected by the epidemic situation, weak real estate and slow commencement of engineering projects, the downstream construction has declined year-on-year for two consecutive weeks and began to decline slightly month on month. Under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, we still need to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation in Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought about by the conclusion of the nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran. In addition, on April 6, the IEA said that the total dumping scale of its Member States reached 240 million barrels, that is, the United States added 120 million barrels this time, plus the previous 60 million barrels of dumping reserves, a total of 180 million barrels, while other member states dumped 120 million barrels in total. We need to pay attention to the implementation of the follow-up launch plan; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth; Moreover, with the support of dry weather, global inflation transmission and other factors, soft commodities such as cotton and sugar also deserve attention; At the precious metals level, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time, superimposed high inflation in the United States, and maintained the view of bargain hunting and long.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (cotton, sugar, soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; The cost of non-ferrous metals (domestic demand), non-ferrous metals (domestic demand), non-ferrous chemicals (domestic demand), non-ferrous metals (new industrial demand), and non-ferrous metals (foreign demand);
Stock index futures: neutral.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
