Key investment points:
The epidemic has repeatedly disturbed consumer sentiment, and the Amoy data in March is under pressure. In March, the epidemic situation in China repeatedly led to pressure on consumer sentiment. In addition, affected by the epidemic, express logistics in many places was interrupted periodically. According to Tencent News, by the end of March, there had been more than 2000 outlets around the country, and the number of consumers' complaints about express logistics continued to increase. Under the repeated epidemic situation, the sales of Taobao cosmetics are also under pressure. According to magic mirror data, the sales of Taobao + tmall skin care / make-up reached 16.5 billion yuan in March, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% / 24.8% respectively, which is further higher than that in February (a decrease of 5.1% / 1.4% respectively in February). Subdivided into categories: 1) 2022Q1 skin care category of facial care sets / facial cream / facial cream / mask / sunscreen sales amounted to 101/68/54/47/19 billion, respectively, down by 20.9%/1.8%/9.8%/22.7%/7.6% over the same period, and the essence and sunscreen performance were relatively good. 2) In 2022q1 makeup category, the sales of face / lip / beauty tools / eyes reached 5.9/39/24/24 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.5% / 11.9% / 23.7% / 19.1% respectively. The decline of face and lip makeup was relatively low.
Amoy platform: different brands continue to differentiate, and the performance of domestic products is outstanding. According to the magic mirror data, the performance differentiation of different brands on Amoy platform continues: in terms of domestic brands, Winona and Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) still perform well: 1) Winona's sales in March reached 295 million yuan / + 89.6%, and Q1 as a whole reached 577 million yuan / + 62%. Among them, sunscreen / special cream / lyophilized facial mask is still the top three. 2) Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) 3 month sales volume is 358 million yuan /+80.1%, Q1 as a whole reaches 757 million yuan /+55.8%, of which double anti essence / feather feeling sunscreen / RUBY cream and so on are bright. 3) In March, Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) its runbaiyan / kuadi / mibeier / BM live muscle sales reached 6154 / 7417 / 5917 / 40570000 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 45% / - 8.3% / + 141.1% / + 125.6% respectively. From Q1, the four brands achieved sales of RMB 180 / 145 / 119 / 88 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 17.6% / - 26.2% / 103.5% / 49.6% respectively, and a total of RMB 532 million / the same year-on-year; 4) Yuze / baicaoji under Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) banner achieved sales of 57.41 million yuan / 18.04 million yuan respectively in March, with a year-on-year decrease of 32% / 28.3% respectively. Q1 and Q1 achieved sales of 145 / 51 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.6% / 8.7% respectively; 5) Dr. yu'er / Yilian of Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) achieved sales of 89.16 million yuan / 43.42 million yuan respectively in March, with a year-on-year increase of 36.5% / 12.6% respectively. Q1 achieved RMB 210 million / 89 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 64.3% / 19.2% respectively; 6) MARUMI's sales in March were 44.95 million yuan / - 22.6%, and Q1 sales reached 114 million yuan / - 28.7%. In terms of overseas brands: 1) among high-end brands, Estee Lauder / Lancome / sea blue mystery / Helena achieved growth of 16.1% / 2.5% / 39% / 53.3% respectively in March, and overall Q1 achieved growth of - 2.9% / - 11.4% / 21.7% / 27.9% respectively; 2) The efficacy brands zhongxiulike / yayang / lifuquan / Weizi increased by + 18.9% / - 1.1% / 47.3% / - 39.3% respectively in March, and the overall Q1 increased by - 15.6% / - 20.1% / + 28.0% / - 5.2% respectively. Lifuquan performed well.
Shaking platform: 38 section of some brands show tiktok. According to the data of cicada mother, in terms of domestic brands in March: 1) Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) gmv reached 85.45 million yuan, and self broadcast + small store broadcast accounted for 54%; 2) Winona Gmv reached 45.06 million yuan, and self broadcast + small store broadcast accounted for 45%; 3) The Gmv of runbaiyan / kuadi / mibeier / Jihuo under Huaxi banner reached 1410 / 3116 / 1640 / 45.9 million yuan respectively, and the proportion of self broadcast + small store broadcast reached 33% / 10% / 11% / 53% respectively; 4) Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) has a Gmv of 2631 / 2297 for Yilian / Yier, and 21% / 60% for self broadcast and small store broadcast respectively. In terms of overseas brands, the Gmv of L'Oreal / Olay / Estee Lauder / Lancome reached 6412 / 6296 / 3398 / 17.77 million yuan respectively, and the self broadcast + small store broadcast reached 52% / 39% / 10% / 9% respectively.
Industry rating and investment strategy: remain optimistic about the future development prospects of the cosmetics industry and excellent domestic brands. Maintain a "recommended" rating for the cosmetics industry.
Focus on individual stocks: it is recommended to focus on Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) , Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Guangdong Marubi Biotechnology Co.Ltd(603983) and Syoung Group Co.Ltd(300740) .
Risk tips: 1) the price reduction of overseas playing cards is higher than expected; 2) Repeated epidemics lead to slow recovery of consumption intention; 3) The impact of medical beauty on the cosmetics industry exceeded expectations; 4) Overseas big brands accelerate their entry into China and intensify competition; 5) Major marketing events occur; 6) Focus on the company's performance less than expected.
