Due to the changeable market changes, the performance outlook of the first quarter of 2022 has been revised for several times. The changes in the international situation have led to sharp changes in the cost of upstream raw materials. China’s epidemic has repeatedly damaged consumption. On the one hand, it is the partial loss of consumption scene, on the other hand, it is the decline of consumption confidence. The market changes at the beginning of 2022 put pressure on the food and beverage sector in stages. Finding certainty in uncertainty is our current goal.
Baijiu: high-end stable word, the tone industry development. 1) High end wine: take the lead and establish confidence in the development of the industry. In the Spring Festival of 2022, the sales of high-end liquor will be stable and the set goal will be successfully achieved. With the outbreak of the epidemic and the fluctuation of consumer confidence, Moutai’s price fluctuates as the direction of Baijiu industry. From the current market situation, the price has strong support at the bottom and the main tone is set. From the perspective of sales, the high-end liquor industry is expected to achieve double-digit growth in the first quarter. In the volatile market, the volume and price of maowulu remain stable. It is expected to lead the industry to open a new cycle in the second half of the year with the subsequent recovery of demand. 2) Secondary high-end: high increase in payment collection before the festival, making a “good start” as scheduled Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) announced the operation announcement from January to February, which achieved a “good start” as scheduled and the momentum of nationalization is booming. Although Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) was repeatedly affected by the epidemic situation in Zhejiang Province years ago, it is expected that the overall payment collection will achieve the set goal; 3) Real estate wine leader: the consumption upgrade is obvious, and the epidemic situation in March has a slight impact Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) during the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales are good, and the proportion of gu8 and above products continues to increase, providing a major increase in the company’s revenue; Yanghe dream 6 + continues to grow, with sky blue and crystal dream gaining momentum Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) during the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales are vigorous and the volume is obvious Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) has better dynamic sales in northern and central Anhui markets, and Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) dong6 and dong9 have good sales in the provincial market.
Condiment: the income grows steadily, and the cost is under pressure in the short term. 1) revenue side: before the Spring Festival, condiment enterprises have better delivery conditions. It is expected that the terminal sales will be bright. After the festival, the sales promotion will narrow down and the dynamic sales will gradually stabilize. The main condiment enterprises’ channel inventory level will remain healthy. In March, the epidemic situation has repeatedly disturbed the catering demand, enterprise delivery and market promotion. As a whole, the income side of condiment enterprises is expected to continue to improve over the 2022Q1 high base. At the same time, residents’ stock behavior also accelerates the de inventory level of supermarkets and circulation channels, and 2022q2 is expected to be light loaded; 2) Profit side: the transmission of price increase of major condiment enterprises has been basically completed, but the short-term cost pressure is still prominent. On the whole, the profit margin of 2022q1 is under pressure year-on-year. However, some enterprises invested a lot in sales expenses in the same period last year, which was blocked by the disturbance of the epidemic in March. The Q1 cost rate is expected to improve year-on-year, and the profit performance of 2022q1 condiment enterprises is expected to be differentiated.
Beer: the epidemic has repeatedly affected the “good start”, and the price increase and structural optimization are expected to contribute to the ton price. From the perspective of sales volume, thanks to the return of the Spring Festival, the overall output of the industry from January to February was + 3.6% year-on-year, and the listed liquor enterprises are expected to perform well. However, the epidemic situation in Shenzhen, Shanghai and Jilin repeatedly had a great impact on the mobile sales of beer in March, affecting the overall “good start”; From the perspective of price, under the background of price increase, considering the higher grade of beer consumption during the Spring Festival, it is expected that the increase of apparent ton price will contribute to income. In the future, we still need to observe the repeated impact of the epidemic, and the transmission of price increase and high-end are still the main line of the whole year.
Leisure brine products: the acceleration of store opening slightly exceeded expectations, and the epidemic situation in the same store has a great impact. In terms of store opening, according to the statistics of narrow door restaurant, Juewei Q1 has more than 600 new stores, and Zhou Heiya has about 200 stores. In terms of single store, considering the epidemic in March, the store business in some areas was almost shut down, and the single store in Q1 was under great pressure. On the cost side, the slaughtering pressure caused by the epidemic makes the price of duck by-products deviate from the price of raw ducks. Superimposed on the rise of Q1 transportation costs, the gross profit margin may improve month on month, but there is still pressure on the whole. On the expense side, due to the influence of annual goods Festival, store opening competition subsidies, amortization of equity incentive expenses and so on, the expense rate may be slightly higher than the same period.
Quick frozen food: the income side maintains growth, and the cost pressure remains. Affected by the repeated epidemic situation and the advance of the Spring Festival, we expect the b-end sales of quick-frozen food to be affected, the revenue end narrowed in January, the days of follow-up sales recovered from February to March and the extension of cold weather, and the chain sales of the industry improved. On the profit side, the price of raw materials continues to remain high, and the cost pressure of the industry remains in the short term.
Investment suggestion: the epidemic situation repeatedly affects the dynamic sales. In the short term, it is important to look for certainty. Subsequently, with the recovery of consumption, the performance elasticity is expected to gradually appear. Baijiu, short term steady growth in the first place, the first high-end wine; Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and maintain the sector recommendation of real estate liquor, Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) . Demand for popular goods is picking up, and the cost end is under phased pressure, and the end of the costend is poiseto come under phased pressure. It is optimistic on the follow-up performance. It is expected to see the resilient release. Core recommendations include: the Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) .
Risk tip: the repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the economic recovery was less than expected, and the cost rise exceeded expectations.
