\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
The performance in 2021 is in line with expectations
The company’s revenue in 2021 was 13.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company before and after deduction was RMB 1.166 billion and 1.142 billion, an increase of 8.3% and 141.3% compared with the statutory disclosure data in 2020, and an increase of 38.8% and 76.1% compared with the preparation data in 2020. In 2021q4, the single quarter revenue was 1.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 122 million yuan. The year-on-year slowdown in 2021q4 revenue is expected to be mainly due to factors such as channel hoarding and channel adjustment after the price increase in September. Maintain the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 1.430 billion and RMB 1.640 billion from 2022 to 2023, and it is estimated that the net profit in 2024 will be RMB 1.911 billion, corresponding to EPS 2.5 billion from 2022 to 202496, 3.39 and 3.95 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 37.2, 32.4 and 27.8 times PE. They are optimistic about the performance of Wusu and other high-end products and maintain the “buy” rating.
The structure continues to be high-end, and the ton price and gross profit margin continue to increase
(1) both volume and price rise. In 2021, the sales volume increased by 15.1% year-on-year, mainly due to the growth of Wusu and other high-end products, and the ton price increased by 5.0%, mainly due to the improvement of structure and quality driven by high-end. Among them, the revenue of high-grade wine increased by 43.5% year-on-year, the sales volume increased by 40.5%, the ton price increased by 2.1%, the proportion of revenue increased by 5.76pct to 36.5%, and Wusu outside Xinjiang is expected to increase by about 60% and 1664 by about 35%. The trend of high-grade products is good. The revenue of mainstream liquor increased by 10.8% year-on-year, of which the sales volume increased by 10.6%, the ton price increased slightly by 0.2%, the revenue of Volkswagen liquor increased by 12.5%, the sales volume increased by 4.1% and the ton price increased by 6.2%. (2) The high-end effect is remarkable. The gross profit margin increased by 2.49%, of which the gross profit margins of high, middle and low grades increased by 0.21, 1.26 and 5.71 PCT respectively year-on-year, and the structural upgrading driven by high-end technology contributed significantly.
Improvement of profitability under high-end
In 2021, the net profit margin increased by 2.3pct year-on-year, of which the gross profit margin under the old standards increased by 2.49pct year-on-year, mainly due to the improvement of high-end structure; The sales expense rate (reduction freight) decreased by 0.98pct year-on-year, mainly due to the decrease of publicity expense rate; The management expense ratio decreased by 2.31pct year-on-year, mainly due to the decrease of employee salary and consulting expenses and the improvement of management efficiency.
The impact of the epidemic is relatively short-term, and the high-end trend is still expected to maintain. It is expected that the sales volume in the early stage of the epidemic will maintain a good growth momentum from January to February. Affected by March, the sales volume decreased significantly, and the overall sales volume is expected to increase steadily and slightly in the first quarter. The sharp rise of the industry price belt has brought about the expansion of market capacity, and the upscale is expected to maintain a good momentum. The impact of the epidemic on sales is still short-term, and we continue to be optimistic about the performance of Wusu and other high-end products.
Risk tip: the risk of continued weak catering demand, rapid rise in costs and intensified competition
