\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 096 Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) )
Key investment points
Event: the company issued a pre increase announcement of 2022q1 performance. In the first quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.64 billion yuan, an increase of 185.2% year-on-year and + 104.5% month on month.
Tight supply and demand of chemical fertilizer, and the contribution of phosphate fertilizer and urea to the performance increment: under the background of the global epidemic, countries pay more attention to food security, drive the growth of chemical fertilizer demand, add the rise of bulk raw material prices, and the price of chemical fertilizer rises sharply. The average prices of Monoammonium, diammonium and urea, the main products of 2022q1 company, reached 3131, 3826 and 2661 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 34.7%, + 25.4% and + 33.1% respectively, maintaining a high level month on month. Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global phosphate fertilizer supply was tight, driving the international phosphate fertilizer price higher. The average FOB price of Q1 diammonium phosphate in Morocco was 966.5 US dollars / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 93.8%, and the average domestic and overseas price difference of Q1 exceeded 2000 yuan / ton. The company effectively coordinated the Chinese and international markets and opened up the profit space of phosphate fertilizer. On the cost side, the company has its own phosphate rock and supporting synthetic ammonia, with a high self-sufficiency rate. At the same time, it adopts an efficient large-scale raw material procurement strategy to control the cost of raw materials. The competitive advantage of chemical fertilizer is highlighted, driving the continuous growth of the company's performance.
The demand is good and the prosperity of chemical fertilizer is expected to continue: the high Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices of corn and soybean remain, driving farmers' willingness to cultivate. According to USDA data, it is expected that the global planting area of corn and soybean will reach 200 million hectares and 130 million hectares respectively in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.0% and + 5.2% respectively, which will generate greater demand for chemical fertilizer. At the same time, due to geopolitical conflicts, supply chain obstruction and other reasons, the supply of overseas chemical fertilizer is reduced, and the high boom of the chemical fertilizer industry is expected to continue. In April, the fertilizer preparation for spring ploughing is coming to an end, and China's phosphate fertilizer export is expected to usher in marginal relaxation. At present, the FOB price of diammonium phosphate in Morocco is reported at US $1255 / ton, which is + 37.6% compared with the beginning of the year, and the price difference at home and abroad has exceeded 4000 yuan / ton. As a leading phosphate fertilizer export enterprise in China, the company will continue to benefit in the second quarter, and it is expected that the profitability of the company's phosphate fertilizer will reach a new level.
The business boundary continues to be widened, and we are looking forward to making great achievements in new energy: relying on the technical advantages of fine phosphorus chemical industry and phosphate rock resources, the company actively promotes new energy projects. In the fluorine silicon comprehensive utilization project, 6000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate is expected to be put into operation in June 2022; 500000 T / a iron phosphate battery new material precursor and supporting project phase I 100000 t iron phosphate is expected to be completed in June 2022 and output products in August. In the context of strong demand for new energy, the company is expected to show its strength in the field of new energy.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 3.03, 3.16 and 3.37 yuan. As a leader in the phosphate fertilizer industry, the company has a high degree of self-sufficiency in the industrial chain and enjoys the high prosperity of the fertilizer industry. At the same time, it accelerates the layout of the new energy field and is optimistic about the sustainable growth of the company in the future. It is given a "buy" rating for the first time, with a target price of 33 yuan.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials may fluctuate sharply, the production capacity under construction may be put into operation or less than expected, and the demand may be less than expected.
