\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 238 Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) )
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 3 months, the output of passenger cars was 227559, with a month on month ratio of + 24.61% / + 49.81% respectively; The sales volume was 227442, with a month on month ratio of + 30.89% / + 58.57% respectively. Among them, 1) the output of GAC Honda in March was 73488, with a month on month ratio of + 6.60% / + 21.20% respectively; The sales volume was 76833, with a month on month ratio of + 21.46% / + 34.55% respectively. 2) GAC Toyota’s output in March was 98254 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 38.05% / + 74.61% respectively; The sales volume was 97006 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 41.00% / + 93.62% respectively. 3) GAC motor’s output in March was 29981 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 7.98% / + 30.28% respectively; The sales volume was 30091, with a month on month ratio of + 15.08% / + 26.47% respectively. 4) GAC ea’an produced 20739 vehicles in March, with a month on month ratio of + 189.77% / + 143.02% respectively; The sales volume was 20317, with a month on month ratio of + 189.70% / + 138.29% respectively.
Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 3 month on month (MOM) production batch performed well, and both Ethiopia and Angola achieved high growth. According to the preliminary estimated data of the passenger Federation, the wholesale of passenger cars in March was 1.773 million, with a month on month ratio of – 4% / + 22% respectively. GAC as a whole and all brands performed better than the industry as a whole. 1) From the perspective of brands, with the alleviation of chip shortage, the production and sales of all brands achieved high growth month on month in March. GAC Toyota: the overall month on month performance is better than that of the group as a whole, and the sales of key models are good. Among them, the sales of Camry Series in March were 27211, with a month on month ratio of + 78.87% / + 99.06% respectively; Leiling sold 20032 vehicles in March, with a month on month ratio of + 0.14% / + 94.75% respectively. GAC Honda: among the key models, the sales volume of accord Series in March was 20667, with a month on month ratio of + 22.36% / + 24.59% respectively; Binzhi sold 16623 vehicles in March, with a month on month ratio of + 1.35% / + 63.34% respectively. GAC motor: among the key models, GAC motor GS4 series sold 12374 vehicles in March, with a month on month ratio of + 41.68% / + 21.76% respectively. GAC ea’an: during the Spring Festival, the phase II capacity expansion of ea’an factory was completed, and the delivery reached a record high in March. 2) In terms of vehicle types, MPV has the best year-on-year performance. The output of cars in March was 104374, with a month on month ratio of + 34.14% / + 60.43% respectively; The sales volume was 103185 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 37.58% / + 65.50% respectively. The monthly output of suv3 is 104879 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 11.56% / + 41.92% respectively; The sales volume was 105853, with a month on month ratio of + 19.46% / + 60.25% respectively. The monthly output of MPV3 was 18306 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 69.42% / + 41.44% respectively; The sales volume in March was 18404, with a month on month ratio of + 81.25% / + 22.43% respectively. 3) In terms of energy types, the production batch of new energy models maintained rapid growth on a month on month basis. In March, the output of new energy vehicles was 23497, with a month on month ratio of + 165.53% / + 126.87% respectively; The sales volume was 23220 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 165.01% / + 121.61% respectively.
Overall replenishment of the group: according to our self built inventory system, in March Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) overall replenishment of inventory, the enterprise’s inventory in the current month was + 117 (compared with February). The inventory of guangben / Guangfeng / GAC motor / ai’an enterprises in the current month was – 3345 / + 1248 / – 110 / + 422 respectively (compared with February).
Profit forecast and investment rating: the independent “dual brand” differentiation strategy is implemented smoothly, and the model cycle of the joint venture is strong. We maintain the expectation of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) 20222024 net profit attributable to the parent company, which is 91 / 112 / 14.1 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.87/1.07/1.35 yuan and PE of 13 / 10 / 8 times in 20222024, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
