\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Fy21 maintained strong performance development: in 2021, the company recorded a total operating revenue of 13.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39% (comparable caliber). By product grade, the company’s high-grade / mainstream / economic beer products achieved sales revenue of 4.68/65.5/1.6 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 43.47% / 10.8% / 10.6%. The sales volume of high-end beer reached + 4.4 million liters year-on-year, and the sales volume of each grade of beer further increased to + 4.4 million liters year-on-year, with a year-on-year increase in the sales price of high-end products, with a further year-on-year increase in the sales price of each grade of beer.
The strong expansion momentum of core products continued: during the period, the company’s “big city plan” kept making great strides. The beer sales revenue of northwest, central and southern regions were 4.19/53.2/3.33 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.2% / + 13.6% / + 28.0%. Among them, the high-end product series with the local strong brand Wusu as the core maintained a strong development trend and continuously obtained new market growth points. During the period, the annual sales volume of Wusu was + 34% year-on-year, mainly due to the remarkable results of omni-channel expansion and intensive cultivation in the market outside Xinjiang. We expect that the annual sales volume outside Wusu was about 60% year-on-year, which is the core driving force for the overall sales growth of the company. Looking forward to the future, in the short term, due to the effective control of the epidemic situation in China around the Spring Festival in 2022, the company is expected to have a good start from January to February. In March, the epidemic situation in some areas may be prominent or impose great restrictions on local drinking channels. However, in view of the differences in the company’s main core markets, we expect that the company will be directly affected by the epidemic situation or less than its peers. On the day, due to the company’s development through non drinking channels such as continuous overweight communities and e-commerce, It is expected that the overall sales will maintain a steady growth trend this year. In the long run, the company’s core brand has a strong momentum of national expansion and the continuous strengthening of sales network. It is expected that the “big city plan” will also enter the stage of accelerated integration, and the whole brand synergy will be doubled to promote the orderly improvement of overall sales in the future.
Multi pronged approach leads to continuous improvement of profits: during the period, the company’s product structure continued to be optimized, with sales of high-end products accounting for + 4pct to 24% year-on-year, driving the comprehensive gross profit margin + 3.3pct to 50.94% year-on-year, and the net profit margin attributable to the parent company + 1.2% to 8.9% year-on-year. In 2022, due to major changes in the international situation, it is expected that the prices of major raw materials such as social malt and packaging materials will continue to rise. However, considering that (1) the company has implemented price lock for the purchase of some core raw materials this year, it is expected that the cost pressure will be relatively controllable during the year; (2) Since the end of last year, the company has successively implemented the price adjustment strategy for its products according to local conditions. It is expected that the market price increase transmission will be realized smoothly in the peak season of this year, and some cost pressures will be suppressed: (3) in the future, with the company’s increased production in Dali, Yibin high-speed can pulling line and the new Yancheng distillery, the overall scale production efficiency is expected to be further improved, and the average ton cost will continue to improve; (4) China’s beer industry has continued its strong consumption upgrading trend. In the future, the brand power of the company’s Wusu, 1664 and other high-end large products is expected to accelerate the release, leading the rapid development of medium and high-end products. It is expected that the overall profit margin of the company will continue to rise steadily.
Target price 146.6 yuan, buy rating: To sum up, we believe that the repeated interference of the epidemic on the industry is a short-term impact. In the future, with the gradual recovery of China’s tourism and catering industry, the company is expected to boost the strong expansion of all channels and realize the steady improvement of market share and profit in the future by continuing to rely on the brand combination of “international high-end brand + local strong brand”, It is estimated that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 is expected to reach 1.42/17.9/2.15 billion yuan, with a target price of 146.6 yuan, equivalent to 50 times PE of the profit forecast in fiscal year 22, an increase of + 33.4% from the current stock price, and maintain the buy rating.
Important risks: 1) food safety; 2) Product access is blocked; 3) The repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
