\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 012 Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) )
Performance summary: in 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.01 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 105.5%.
The demand explosion promoted the substantial growth of revenue, and the improvement of operation efficiency led to the decrease of expense rate. 2021: 1) on the revenue side, the company achieved a revenue of 3.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.7%. 2) From the profit side, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.01 billion yuan in the whole year, with a significant year-on-year increase of 105.5%. Among them, the gross profit margin of the company was 43.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7pp; The net interest rate was 32.5%, a year-on-year increase of 10.9pp. 3) On the expense side, the company’s sales expense ratio was 9.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9pp; The rate of administrative expenses was 6.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2pp; The R & D expense ratio was 12.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7pp.
CCP and ICP accelerated the volume, and the market expansion of etching equipment supported the company’s long-term performance growth. In 2021, the company’s etching equipment revenue was 2 billion yuan, a significant increase of 55.4% year-on-year. Specifically, 1) the market share of CCP equipment continued to increase. In 2021, the company produced and shipped 298 cavities of CCP etching equipment, with a year-on-year increase of 40%, driving the market share of the company to continue to rise. 2) The ICP etching equipment has gradually passed the downstream verification. In 2021, the company produced and shipped 134 chambers of ICP etching equipment, with a year-on-year increase of 235%. Company primonanova ® ICP etching products have been verified by more than 100 ICP etching processes on the production lines of more than 15 customers. At present, they have passed the verification of some customers and have been put into mass production. At the industry level, according to Gartner’s prediction, the global etching equipment market will grow from US $12.3 billion in 2020 to US $15.2 billion in 2024. We expect that with the increase of the company’s market share, the company’s performance will continue to maintain rapid growth in the future.
MOCVD equipment orders broke out, and there is huge room for growth in the future. In 2021, the company took the lead in releasing MOCVD equipment for mass production of high-performance miniled. The equipment can process 164 4-inch or 72 6-inch epitaxial wafers at the same time, and the total orders of downstream customers have exceeded 100 cavities. At the same time, the company has actively arranged MOCVD equipment for developing mass production of Gan power devices, which has been delivered to customers for production verification. In addition, the company’s MOCVD equipment for microled is also actively developing, and the product line has been further enriched.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the company’s EPS is expected to be 1.72 yuan, 2.07 yuan and 2.48 yuan from 2022 to 2024, and the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 36.2% in the next three years Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) is the leader in China’s etching equipment industry, and the market share of etching equipment in China has increased steadily. Based on the above considerations, we give the company 92 times PE in 2022, corresponding to the market value of 97.23 billion yuan and the target price of 157.8 yuan. We give the “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk tip: the expansion of downstream customers is less than expected, the research and development of new products is less than expected, and the international trade friction is intensified.
