\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 005 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) )
The company predicts that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 in 2022 will be 280300 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 134% – 151%, which is in line with market expectations. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2022 to be 280300 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 134% – 151% and a month on month decrease of 17% – 23%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 283303 million, with a year-on-year increase of 215% – 237%. The release of the company’s production capacity was accelerated, and the utilization rate of production capacity remained at a high level, which was in line with market expectations.
The company shipped 18000 tons in Q1 in 2022, an increase of 110% +, and the annual shipment is expected to increase by 180% +. The company’s Q1 shipment in 2022 is expected to be about 18000 tons, a slight increase of about 5% month on month, more than doubling year-on-year. In terms of profitability, we expect the company’s net profit per ton in Q1 in 2022 to be about 1500016000 yuan / ton. With the consumption of the company’s inventory income, the net profit per ton will return to the normal level, which is about 20% lower than Q4 in 2021, and the self supply proportion of the company’s precursors will increase to 30% +. The net profit per ton is significantly higher than that of Q1 in 2021. The company has expanded production rapidly. With the smooth release of production capacity, we expect the Q2 production of the company to further increase month on month in 2022. We expect 150000 tons of shipments in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 180% +, doubling the growth for two consecutive years. With the increase of the integration proportion of the company and the superposition of scale effect and cost reduction, we expect the annual net profit per ton to maintain about 13 Yihua Healthcare Co.Ltd(000150) 00 yuan / ton, basically the same year-on-year.
High nickel is the general direction of industry progress. The company has high order certainty in 2022, and the leading position of high nickel is stable. The performance of high nickel batteries has been greatly improved and there is much room for cost reduction. As the general trend of the industry, the share will continue to increase. H1 is expected to accelerate with the mass production penetration of 4680 batteries in 2022. The company is the leader of high nickel cathode, with a capacity of 120000 tons by the end of 2021. The company expects that the capacity will exceed 250000 tons by the end of 2022. In 2025, the company will expand the capacity of high nickel cathode to more than Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons, and the capacity planning is huge. The company is the main supplier of high nickel in Ningde. We expect that the company is expected to provide 3007.5 9100000 tons of high nickel ternary cathode in 2022; At the same time, the company signed a supply agreement of 30000 tons of high nickel cathode with Funeng in 2022, and honeycomb energy, Weilai and Weilan also successively signed strategic cooperation agreements to cooperate with skon, SDI and northvolt. The company has high order certainty in 2022. We expect that the company’s shipment in 2022 is expected to reach 150000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 180% for two consecutive years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the downstream demand is strong. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be RMB 2.004/3.038/4.256 billion, an increase of 120% / 52% / 40%, corresponding to pe29 / 19 / 13X. 45xpe will be given in 2022, the target price is RMB 201.1, and the “buy” rating will be maintained.
Risk tip: the sales volume of electric vehicles is lower than expected, and the competition intensifies.
