\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 314 Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) )
Backed by Nanshan Group, deeply plough three business sectors: Shenzhen New Nanshan Holding (Group) Co.Ltd(002314) founded in 2001, is a comprehensive enterprise focusing on real estate development, developing high-end warehousing and logistics and exploring industrial and urban development. The actual controller of the company is Nanshan Development Group, with state-owned capital as the main body. It is the first state-owned holding mixed ownership enterprise in China. It has rich and excellent land resources, forming a potential synergistic effect on the company.
Logistics real estate industry: high standard warehouse supply exceeds demand, and the industry pattern is more than one super. Demand side: consumption upgrading and e-commerce development support the demand for logistics warehousing, and the expansion of consumption system leads to the demand for high-standard warehouses. Supply side: the number of land transfer for logistics warehousing has decreased, the speed of warehousing construction has slowed down, and the per capita stock area is far lower than that of the United States and other developed countries. In the future, the supply chain will be a new growth point, and the integration of new retail Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) scenarios will also drive the high-standard warehouse market. Financing: public REITs provide an exit channel for logistics warehousing, which is expected to release the valuation pressure. From the perspective of industry pattern, a competitive pattern has been formed, with prologia as the first superpower and companies such as world wide, Baowan and Yupei as the strongest.
Warehousing and logistics business: a strategic main business with obvious advantages. In terms of assets, the layout of major logistics node cities has formed a perfect network layout; In terms of financing, issue REITs to revitalize stock assets, broaden financing channels and meet external financing needs; In terms of operation ability, the company has good customer quality and high stability, and the standardized management system has formed brand influence. In addition, the company will increase China nuclear power, which is expected to provide energy supply guarantee and improve asset value by expanding photovoltaic business.
Real estate business: a supporting business for steady development. In the first half of 2021, the company’s real estate business revenue was 2.814 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 639%. The real estate business focuses on expanding high-quality land projects. At present, the company’s main development areas are located in first-line and second-line cities, with good overall profitability and payment collection. It is expected to further improve the profitability in the future.
Industry city comprehensive development business: a nurturing business that has begun to take shape. In the first half of 2021, the company achieved an income of 18.72 million yuan from the comprehensive development business of industry and city, with a year-on-year increase of 70.72%, and the gross profit margin remained at a high level of 50.75%. At present, the projects that have been implemented include Hefei Shuangfeng Baowan international trade logistics Industrial Park, Hefei Gangji comprehensive transportation logistics port, Nanjing Pukou Intelligent Manufacturing Park, etc.
Financial status: the revenue grew rapidly and the expense rate increased. Thanks to the stability of logistics rent and the rapid development of real estate business, the total revenue grew rapidly, with an operating revenue of 5.204 billion yuan in 2021q3, a year-on-year growth of 43% and a year-on-year growth of 351% in net profit attributable to the parent company. The operating cost of the company is mainly due to the increase of the carry over area of the company’s real estate business projects and the putting into use of the new park for warehousing and logistics business.
It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.27/0.31/0.37 yuan / share. With the increase of the sales scale of the company’s real estate business, the settlement scale of the real estate business is expected to increase, the logistics warehousing project under construction is completed, the operating area is increased, the rental income is expected to maintain growth, and the development of manufacturing and other businesses is stable. For the first time, the company is given a “buy” rating with a target price of 7.73 yuan.
Risk factors: the tightening or relaxation of real estate regulation and control policies is less than expected, the decline of sales in the real estate industry is more than expected, and the expansion of the company’s real estate development business and logistics real estate business is less than expected
