\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 612 Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) )
Event: after hours on April 7, the company announced that it planned to invest in the first phase of the 50000 ton project of the 200000 ton / year lithium ion battery cathode material integration project (50000 ton / year lithium ion battery cathode material graphitization furnace and supporting public and auxiliary facilities project) in Jiayuguan Jiabei Industrial Park. The total investment of the project is 720 million yuan and the construction period is 12 months. Meanwhile, the company increased its wholly-owned subsidiary Gansu sotong Shengyuan carbon materials Co., Ltd. with cash of RMB 283 million as the main body of the project.
Comments:
Electricity and raw materials account for more than half of the cost of artificial graphite. GGII data show that in 2021, China shipped 720000 tons of lithium battery cathode, with a year-on-year increase of 97%, of which the proportion of artificial graphite products increased to 84% and natural graphite decreased to 14%. Raw materials and electricity (mainly graphitization) account for a relatively high proportion of the cost composition of artificial graphite. According to the prospectus of Shangtai technology, electricity accounts for 21% and raw materials (mainly including needle coke and petroleum coke) account for 31% of the negative electrode production cost of Shangtai technology in the first half of 2021; The graphitization process of Shangtai technology is completely self-sufficient, and the graphitization capacity partially depends on outsourcing. The power consumption cost of enterprises accounts for a higher proportion.
Petroleum coke has significant advantages in procurement and power, and is optimistic about the negative pole layout of the company. 1) Petroleum coke is one of the raw materials for prebaked anode production. By the end of 2021, the operating capacity of the company has reached 2.52 million tons, and it is one of the largest purchasers of petroleum coke; The company has established stable cooperative relations with upstream suppliers at home and abroad such as Sinopec and PetroChina, and also stabilized channel supply and cost advantages by intervening in petroleum coke trade; The development of lithium negative electrode is expected to continue to make use of the advantages of raw materials. 2) The waste heat generated by the calcined petroleum coke process produced by the company’s prebaked anode is used for production and domestic heat, and the surplus part is generated through the waste heat power generation device installed in the calcination workshop to meet 55-70% of the power consumption of the whole plant (the data is from the prospectus); The power consumption advantage in the subsequent production of graphite negative electrode is obvious.
The volume and price rise together, and the performance is expected to continue to grow high in 2022. On the evening of March 28, the company announced that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first quarter of 2022 was 140150 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 28% – 37%, mainly due to the increase of sales volume and the rise of pre baked anode price. 1) Volume: at present, the company’s operating capacity is 2.52 million tons / year, an increase of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons / year compared with 2021. It is mainly tied to the commissioning of phase I pre baked anode project with an annual output of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) tons. 2) price: as of April 7, the average price of pre baked anode in China is 7379 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 72% and 41% compared with the beginning of 2022. The company’s performance is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2022.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company’s pre baked anode capacity has expanded steadily. Relying on the advantages of high-quality products and low cost, the profit is expected to break away from cyclical fluctuations and achieve stable growth. Without considering the contribution of new business performance, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 590 / 770 / 940 million respectively (adjusted by – 9% / – 7% / – 8% compared with the previous time, mainly considering the rise in the price of raw petroleum coke), with a year-on-year increase of 174% / 31% / 22%, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 15 / 11 / 9x respectively. Considering that the company’s performance is expected to grow steadily, maintain the “overweight” rating.
