Looking back on Thursday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. The A-share index opened three days earlier and fell sharply in the afternoon.
As stated by Guosheng securities, China’s economic data did not exceed expectations under the influence of adverse factors such as the epidemic, international tensions and the Fed’s interest rate hike and contraction. Meanwhile, the market is difficult to form a joint offensive force due to the restriction of quantity and energy. The probability of short-term reversal is low. The market will be stabilized by shock or will run through the whole month.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the index continued to fluctuate and adjust on Thursday, the net outflow of funds going north continued, and the volume of the two markets could continue to shrink, suppressing market confidence with the introduction and implementation of the follow-up steady growth policy, it is expected that the market will continue to shake and repair, and pay attention to the north capital flow and energy changes . Operationally, it is suggested to focus on the layout of the middle line, and pay attention to finance, food and beverage, real estate, electrical equipment, steel and other industries.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that on Thursday, the A-share market opened low and went down in shock. Affected by the Fed’s interest rate hike, the Asia Pacific market fell in the morning. The stock indexes of the two cities jumped low and opened low in the morning, rushed up and fell back after a short time. The recent decline of popular industries such as real estate, medicine and banking dragged the stock indexes down in shock step by step. More than 90% of the stocks in the two cities fell, and investors’ risk aversion increased rapidly. The trading volume of the two cities is 930 billion yuan, and the game characteristics of stock are remarkable .
In terms of the future market, the institution further analyzed that considering the uncertainty of influencing factors outside China in the near future, it is less likely that the stock index will continue to rise in the short term, before the external factors are further clarified, the stock index is more likely to maintain range shock . It is expected that the short-term slight shock of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight consolidation of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities pointed out that after the emergence of the “policy bottom”, the emergence of the “market bottom” requires quarterly transaction confirmation , so investors are advised to pay attention to the band opportunities in the process of sideways volatility.
In the medium term, the market trend has been seriously damaged. Therefore, it is expected that the Shanghai stock index will fluctuate between 31003400 points in at least one quarter in the future, and the opportunity of midline allocation is expected to appear after June . The agency believes that the “strategic holding period” can be used to change positions to reduce costs and wait for the midline position to increase positions. In view of the current market, we suggest: first, adjust the position and share exchange, and adjust the value of relatively low risk from the relatively high-risk track; Second, do price difference and reduce costs.
In the macro aspect, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) believes that the impact of the epidemic on China’s economy has begun to be gradually reflected in the economic data, and the data in March and the second quarter are expected to be poor. In the short term, under the influence of the continuous fermentation of China’s epidemic, the market still takes steady growth and upstream resources as the main line, but the fluctuation may intensify, control the position and wait for the improvement of macro data and the marginal change of enterprise micro operation .
In terms of operational strategy, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said, this year’s main line of market certainty is steady growth . Since the first quarter, the trend of infrastructure, real estate and finance has been relatively strong. On the contrary, the growth direction of consumption, science and technology with strong performance in the past two years has been obviously under pressure. On the one hand, the global interest rate hike has suppressed the valuation of the growth direction, on the other hand, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, It has a great impact on consumption. The disk is active, and the funds choose the direction of steady growth. However, we should still pay attention to short-term risks. In April, the debts of many real estate companies expired, the real estate fundamentals have not stabilized, and the market speculation is on the left.
The agency also pointed out that the short-term growth direction needs to be carefully avoided, especially for the varieties sold by institutions. At present, the market value stocks are relatively dominant. Before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike in May falls, the market still repeats. In terms of operation, we can focus on the varieties that have been fully adjusted in the early stage and cannot be verified, or the prosperity of the first quarter is OK and the performance is deterministic, and carry out low absorption in batches .
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that from the medium and long-term perspective, we are still optimistic about the market in the third stage of growth style (main line + diffusion), steady growth (new and old infrastructure, real estate and banks) and consumption recovery (medicine, price rise main line and travel chain). However, in the short term dimension, under the frequent switching of market hotspots, we suggest that the configuration should be more refined. Specifically: 1) the stable growth chain has high short-term cost performance, We can continue to participate in the upstream and downstream of real estate, banks, new and old infrastructure and other markets. 2) In the medium and short term, we can continue to participate in the opportunities related to the main line of medicine and price increase (planting industry / chemical fertilizer). Before the inflection point of the epidemic, the travel chain (Airport / hotel / catering, etc.) is mainly concerned. 3) For the growth style, it is suggested to adjust the growth main line of power equipment, electronics and other industries.
