According to the data, as of April 6, 11 of the 21 Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies in the heavy truck industry chain have disclosed the annual report of 2021, of which 10 companies have achieved profits, and the net profits of 7 companies have increased by different ranges year-on-year.
On April 1, at the performance presentation meeting held in Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) China, Tan Xuguang, chairman of Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) told institutional investors and media representatives such as Securities Daily that due to the switch from “national five” to “national six”, the sales and performance of China’s heavy truck industry soared in the first half of last year and plummeted in the second half of last year. Although the performance of Companies in the heavy truck industry fell sharply year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022, it has obviously started to recover from the fourth quarter of last year, and the industry demand is expected to gradually improve.
heavy truck industry strives to get out of the trough
According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, China achieved about 1395000 heavy truck sales in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%. However, it is worth noting that the sales volume of heavy trucks in China reached 1045000 in the first half of last year, accounting for about three-quarters of the annual sales volume.
In an interview with Securities Daily, Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the automotive innovation center of Northern University of technology, said that last year, affected by the switch between “national five” and “national six”, a large amount of demand was released in advance in the first half of the year. Since the second half of the year, due to the declining demand, high raw material prices, chip shortage and other factors caused by the completion of the “national five” and “national six” regulations, the sales volume of heavy trucks has decreased significantly. Affected by the overall economic environment, the heavy truck industry is highly cyclical and volatile.
In the interview, a number of Listed Companies in the industrial chain said that from the sales performance of the heavy truck industry over the years, it showed a typical wave forward and spiral rise, and the ownership showed a steady growth trend. After five consecutive years of high prosperity, the heavy truck market is likely to enter a period of adjustment.
Since 2022, the heavy truck industry has made great efforts to get out of the trough. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in January this year, China’s heavy truck market sold 78000 various models, down 57% year-on-year. In February, the overall sales volume of the heavy truck industry was 59000, down 50% year-on-year. It has continued to decline for 10 consecutive months since May last year, forming a “ten consecutive decline”.
“The sales volume of the heavy truck industry in the first quarter of this year must have fallen sharply compared with the same period last year.” Tan Xuguang said, but from the perspective of month on month, there are obvious signs of recovery in the first quarter of this year compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Tan Xuguang, for example, said that from the sales volume of Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) heavy truck engines, it is expected that March will increase by 76% compared with February. “After the year-on-year decline in January and February, the heavy truck industry has improved significantly since March. Although it has cooled down due to the recent epidemic prevention and control, on the whole, it is expected to improve in the second quarter.” Tan Xuguang said.
It is not expected that the sales volume of the whole year will return to the normal level 30 after the stimulation of environmental protection in the first quarter and the second quarter, which is expected to be too pessimistic.
Zhang Xiang also told the reporter of Securities Daily, “after the epidemic is controlled, the heavy truck industry still has good development opportunities.”
looking for new energy breakthrough
To get rid of the curse of industry cycle, companies in the heavy truck industry chain are trying to make diversified layout and structural adjustment.
For example, Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) while continuously improving the gold industrial chain of heavy truck powertrain, through in-depth layout, it has continuously improved the new energy power system solutions represented by hydrogen fuel cells, and has formed an all-round layout of “fuel cells, power cells and electric drive systems”. In addition, Weichai has also entered the fields of high-end hydraulic system, CVT powertrain, large bore engine and intelligent logistics through international and Chinese mergers and acquisitions, and is expected to achieve greater development through the synergy between different business fields, so as to resist the impact of the industry cycle.
In the past, Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) , which only focused on heavy truck crankshaft, has moved towards the road of all-round development of crankshaft, connecting rod and forging casting business after layout adjustment in recent years. At the same time, it has focused on the air suspension business of the secondary industry to realize the diversified layout of products. According to the company’s annual report, the newly developed air suspension business of the company in 2020 achieved an operating revenue of 204 million yuan after incubation in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 253.16%.
In the face of the enthusiasm for new energy in the field of passenger cars, the field of commercial vehicles, especially the heavy truck industry, is particularly sober.
“We must treat new energy and fossil energy rationally. The development of new energy should follow the market law and should not ‘Swarm’ and disorderly investment. For a long time, fossil energy is an irreplaceable power in the fields of heavy commercial vehicles, non road use, ship power, agricultural equipment and so on.” Tan Xuguang said.
“Of course, the arrival of new energy will certainly bring impetus to scientific and technological progress to traditional energy.” Qi Haizhen, President of Beijing Teyi sunshine new energy, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily that the new energy of commercial vehicles in some subdivided application fields is taking shape, especially in the field of non long-distance transportation, such as green new energy of mine terminals and coal yard power plants, and gradually increase penetration and application.
“Generally speaking, because the current technical level of new energy heavy truck is not mature, it can only be applied in a small proportion and in a small range. In the short term, new energy commercial vehicles cannot replace fuel commercial vehicles on a large scale.” Zhang Xiang said.
For the breakthrough point of new energy in the field of heavy trucks, Qi Haiyu believes that at present, the energy density of power cells is low, and the volume and weight of battery packs of electric commercial vehicles are too large. Before hydrogen fuel heavy trucks have not become the mainstream of the industry, replacing electric heavy trucks or hybrid oil and electricity may be more suitable for the current business development.
