in the first quarter of this year, the A-share market was affected by multiple factors and showed a shock downward trend as a whole. In the second quarter outlook of A-Shares released by a number of securities companies, "bottom grinding" and "repair" have become key words. External factors are still risk points to be considered, and factors such as the safety margin of valuation and the continued force of stable growth policy will become the basis of rebound. In terms of allocation strategy, undervalued sectors such as banks and real estate and oversold technology stocks are the promising direction of most securities companies
first quarterly report or Shuiling
In mid March, the bottom of A-share policy was consolidated, so the market stopped the decline and turned into a volatile upward pattern. For the trend of the second quarter, securities companies generally believe that after the decline in the first quarter, the market valuation is low and the safety margin is improved, which lays a good foundation for the stabilization and recovery of the market in the second quarter. However, due to unstable factors, the shock and bottom grinding will become the main tone of A-Shares in the second quarter, and there are structural opportunities in the market.
Aijian Securities said that the market environment will gradually improve in the second quarter, and the expectation of valuation repair is high. It is a gradual process as a whole Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that the market will enter the grinding stage from the bottom of policy to the bottom of market.
On the specific operation rhythm, the market view is not unified. "The market may have a more positive performance in April." Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) strategy analyst Zhang Yusheng believes that, on the one hand, the quarterly results are still the supporting factor of the market; On the other hand, macro policy and other factors will also promote the repair of risk appetite.
Zhang Yusheng further said that after the first quarterly report, the market may face certain downward pressure, and the inflection point may not appear until the economy bottoms out. "The first quarterly report will become a watershed in the market." He analyzed and said.
Caixin Securities said that in combination with the current macro environment and A-share fundamentals, it is expected that the probability of trend market in the second quarter is small.
Some securities companies also learn from the historical trend and believe that there is room for market valuation in the second quarter. Bohai Securities said that this year was a big year of steady growth. From the previous years with high economic growth pressure, the valuation of A-Shares generally rose in the second quarter. For the second quarter of this year, once the steady growth is verified at the micro level, the market valuation will have room to rise.
external pressure and internal support
In the first quarter of this year, A-Shares were suppressed by obvious external factors. For the second quarter, in the view of China's major securities companies, external factors are still the main risk points, which are embodied in three aspects.
First, the Fed's interest rate meeting in March released a more than expected hawkish signal, and the table contraction may be started in May Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that there is no precedent for such an urgent pace of monetary policy tightening, and its impact needs to be digested by the market.
Secondly, the Federal Reserve tightened liquidity, and US stock earnings are facing downward revision China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that if US stocks fluctuate sharply again, it will be a drag on a shares.
Finally, international geopolitical conflicts continue. Recently, global commodity prices have remained high, and it is difficult for global stagflation concerns to subside quickly Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that the risk of stagflation or recession in the United States has not been completely eliminated, and the expected disturbance in a specific environment is not ruled out.
However, China's macro policy and A-share valuation factors supported the trend in the second quarter Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said that monetary policy in the second quarter may maintain structural easing, and quantitative policy instruments are still available; Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a high growth rate in the second quarter.
The valuation end provides a margin of safety. It is estimated that by the end of the first quarter, the P / E ratio of the Shanghai index was only 12.5 times, at the 33% quantile level since 2010. The valuation of some growth industries is significantly low. For example, the current price earnings ratio of the electronics industry is only 25.5 times, which is at the quantile level of less than 3% since 2010.
In addition, the consolidation of the policy bottom is also an important support for the market China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that judging from the recent statements made at the meeting of the financial committee of the State Council and the executive meeting of the State Council, the decision-making level has a clear determination to maintain the stability of the capital market.
focus on two major directions
At present, benefiting from the steady growth of real estate, infrastructure chain and oversold track stocks are the two directions generally favored by securities companies in the second quarter.
Specifically, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that on the one hand, the valuation of the science and technology growth sector has improved significantly, focusing on the deterministic direction of performance, including photovoltaic, semiconductor, energy storage, etc; On the other hand, the direction of steady growth is clear, and there is still room for repair in banking, real estate and other sectors.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) it is suggested to pay attention to three main lines. The first is the main line of steady growth, including real estate development, services, building materials, building decoration, urban pipe network transformation, new power grid construction and other new and old infrastructure sectors.
The second is the main line of consumption recovery, including covid-19 specific drugs, the pharmaceutical sector catalyzed by antigen self-test, the airport, hotel catering, expressway and tourism service industries under the background of consumption recovery, and the planting industry and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing industry with smoother price rise.
Finally, there is the growth track, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, semiconductor upstream equipment and other sectors.
Caixin securities is optimistic about four types of structural opportunities. The first is cash assets, including high dividend and high dividend assets such as coal, real estate, banks, Chinese prefix construction, hydropower and communication operators. Second, the dilemma reversal sector independent of the macroeconomic cycle, including the pig breeding sector with the reversal of the industrial cycle. Third, the sector with prosperous production and marketing. In the next 1-2 quarters, the expected performance improvement from strong to weak is defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation, communication and computer industry. Fourth, new energy and other track stocks. Relevant companies are still in the stage of industrial explosion and have certain investment opportunities, focusing on track stocks with performance support.
