Key investment points
Market review of transportation and social service industry this week
Among the 31 shenwanyi industries, the cumulative growth of transportation and social service industries this week (March 28 – April 1) were + 4.74% and + 2.96% respectively, ranking 5th and 11th respectively; The CSI 300 index rose by + 2.43%.
Among 134 Shenwan secondary industries, this week (March 28 – April 1), the cumulative growth of hotel catering, tourism and scenic spots, airports and tourism retail was + 7.3%, + 4.9%, + 2.1% and + 0.0% respectively, ranking 7th, 14th, 39th and 77th respectively.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from March 26 to April 1, China reported 52847 local confirmed cases (including asymptomatic infections), mainly in Shanghai, Jilin, Fujian, Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, Henan, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and other places. 2) Global: from March 26 to April 1, there were about 9.84 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia overseas, a month on month increase of – 13%; The number of deaths increased by 30492, a month on month increase of – 32%. As of April 1, 2022, there were about 490 million confirmed cases of covid-19 pneumonia and about 6.16 million deaths worldwide. 3) United States: from March 26 to April 1, about 210000 new cases of covid-19 pneumonia were diagnosed in the United States, up 0.2% month on month; A total of 4791 deaths were added, down 21% month on month. As of April 1, 2022, the cumulative diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia in the United States is about 81.81 million, and the cumulative death is about 1.01 million. 4) UK: from March 26 to April 1, about 530000 cases of covid-19 pneumonia were newly diagnosed in the UK, down 12.5% month on month; There were 1125 new deaths, up 18.4% month on month. As of April 1, 2022, the cumulative diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia in the UK is about 21.38 million and the cumulative death is about 170000.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: according to the official website of the National Health Commission, as of April 1, the country has reported about 3.27 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine; At the same time, the third needle was introduced throughout the country to strengthen needle vaccination. About 3.79 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from March 26 to April 1, with a month on month decrease of 8.3%. 2) Global: according to ourworldindata, as of April 1, the world had received about 11.29 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine, and about 64.5% of the world’s population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: travel demand is impacted by local epidemic
1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from March 26 to April 1, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 3641, a year-on-year decrease of 72.3% in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of – 33.0% and – 74.2% respectively in 2020 and 2019, and a month-on-week decrease of 5.6%.
2) aviation department: from March 26 to April 1, according to the data of flight standards, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 354, 699, 305, 98, 42 and 88 respectively, with the average of + 14.2%, + 0.4%, + 5.7%, – 8.9%, – 47.0% and – 18.0% respectively.
According to the data of Beijing airport and Shanghai airport on Jan. and Jan. respectively, Shanghai airport and Shanghai airport took off and landed on Jan. and Jan. respectively.
Duty free: in the middle of this week, the off Island discount was slightly increased, and Sanya store was temporarily closed
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from March 26 to April 1, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 123 and 212 respectively, a decrease of 12% and 11% respectively compared with last week; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou Airport (expected) was 24784, a month on month decrease of 14.8%.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the discount intensity of direct mail decreased slightly, the discount intensity of China free outlying islands increased slightly, and the tax-free discount intensity of Haifa control, China travel investment and China export service outlying islands were basically the same month on month.
3) from the afternoon of April 2, Sanya outlying island duty-free shops were temporarily closed.
Hotel: in 2021, the profit of Jinjiang surpassed that of Huazhu, and the first brigade turned loss into profit
1) Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) 2021 annual report: the company achieved operating revenue of 11.339 billion yuan / + 14.56%, net profit attributable to parent company of 101 million yuan / – 8.70%, and net profit deducted of – 122 million yuan / + 548 million yuan; In a single quarter, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 2.990 billion yuan / + 3.26%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.8519 million yuan / + 195 million yuan.
2) 6 Haoxiangni Health Food Co.Ltd(002582) 021 annual report: income of 6.15 billion yuan / + 16% in 2021; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 55.68 million yuan, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 10.95 million yuan, which was – 500 million yuan and – 530 million yuan respectively in the previous year, turning losses into profits.
Investment advice
1) recommend Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the travel demand margin in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: domestic covid-19 oral specific drugs have been approved for listing, the dawn of international flight recovery may be at present, and the company will show great profit flexibility in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China’s transportation capacity accounts for a large proportion, its performance is the first to recover, its profit performance is more stable before the opening of the door, its long-term growth is high, and intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
4) recommendation Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : obvious scale advantage, obvious improvement in management, accelerated overseas recovery, and is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
5) recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
6) recommendation Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) : the proportion of Direct stores in Junting is high, and that of Junlan resort hotel is high. The demand recovery stage is expected to show high elasticity, and the medium-term scale is expected to show high growth.
7) recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of outlying island duty-free stores in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
