The growth pressure in the second quarter increased instead of decreasing, and it is expected to stabilize at the end of the quarter
The first quarter started smoothly. Under the organic combination of policy cross cycle and countercyclical regulation, driven by infrastructure and manufacturing investment, the investment side made significant efforts in the first quarter, the consumer side was less disturbed by the epidemic, and exports maintained a high boom. It is expected that the GDP growth rate in the first quarter will reach 5.2% to achieve a stable start.
In the second quarter, the growth pressure increased instead of decreasing, and the GDP growth rate is expected to be 5.1%. In March, PMI fell below the boom and bust line again since October last year. The disturbance of the epidemic has intensified, consumer confidence and willingness are not strong, and residents' consumption continues to recover weakly. It is expected that social zero will be 4.7% year-on-year, and service consumption will be more disturbed. The momentum of investment continues, but the real estate is still at the bottom stage. The export boom continued and the downward pressure increased slightly. Under the influence of the base, CPI rebounded slightly and PPI fell slowly.
Under the disturbance of the epidemic, consumption continued to recover weakly. From January to February, the overall performance of optional consumer goods was good, especially gold and silver jewelry (19.5%), household appliances and audio-visual equipment (12.7%) and cultural office supplies (11.1%), which maintained a high growth rate, indicating that there is still a strong endogenous driving force for consumption. However, Q2 consumption is expected to continue the weak recovery trend under the disturbance of the epidemic. ① The impact of the epidemic will continue for some time. Although the ninth edition of covid-19 epidemic prevention and control guidelines adjusted some epidemic prevention requirements, the epidemic still had a strong disturbance to consumption, especially catering services. ② Consumer confidence remains weak. The central bank's depositor survey shows that the proportion of "more consumption" is still significantly lower than that before the epidemic. Recently, the large-scale layoffs of Internet enterprises and the tightening of epidemic prevention measures have affected the employment of catering service enterprises, which also have a negative impact on consumer confidence. ③ The real estate related consumption chain is difficult to reverse in the short term. With the continuous cold of real estate sales, the retail sales of furniture commodities will continue to be weak in the short term.
The savings rate returned to before the epidemic, but the central bank's survey of depositors showed that consumer confidence was still weak. Although the savings rate of Q4 residents in 2021 has basically recovered to that before the epidemic, the central bank's survey of depositors shows that the proportion of "more consumption" is still significantly lower than that before the epidemic. Recently, the large-scale layoffs of Internet enterprises and the tightening of epidemic prevention measures have affected the employment of catering service enterprises, which also have a negative impact on consumer confidence.
Residents are not optimistic about employment and income prospects, which restricts the recovery of consumer confidence to a certain extent. ① According to the survey data of depositors of the central bank, the income and employment feeling index rebounded in Q1 this year, but it is still lower than Q2 last year and before the epidemic. ② Although the expenditure of unemployment insurance fund has decreased compared with the previous two years, it is still higher than the level before the epidemic. Therefore, social zero is expected to recover gradually, but it is difficult to achieve the growth rate of 8% before the epidemic in the short term.
The impact of a new round of layoffs by Q1 Internet companies on employment and consumption may gradually appear in Q2. For example, Jingdong, millet, Kwai Fu, spelling, Baidu, Tencent, Didi, Alibaba and other well-known Internet companies have been layoffs in varying degrees.
The number of covid-19 local confirmed cases has reached a phased peak, and the impact of the epidemic may end in early May. Referring to the phased experience of the last round of delta epidemic: the epidemic situation in China lags behind that in foreign countries, the peak of the epidemic situation in China occurred in the second round of the peak of the epidemic situation in foreign countries, and the decline in the number of confirmed cases outside China was basically synchronous. At present, the number of covid-19 in the world and the new diagnosis in China are peaking and showing signs of decline. Referring to last year's Delta epidemic in China, the impact was concentrated in August and September. This year, the impact of Omicron epidemic may also take two months to gradually subside, which means that the economic impact of this round of covid-19 may be concentrated in March and April.
The number of asymptomatic infections has increased, which objectively improves the difficulty of epidemic prevention.
