I. semiconductor: the epidemic situation is controllable, but the load is reduced from time to time
Although the epidemic situation in Shanghai is still severe, we believe that the main wafer foundry in Shanghai and Kunshan Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , Huahong, TSMC Songjiang 8-inch plant and huanxu, the sealing and testing plant, have maintained normal operation for 10 days due to sufficient preparation in advance, which does not seriously affect the revenue forecast in the first quarter, and there is a delay in the confirmation of new product development, while the shutdown of downstream system companies such as Tesla and the reduction of production of PCB and carrier plants may cause bottlenecks, Increase semiconductor inventory. As far as the semiconductor factories are concerned, the epidemic situation is controllable, but the load is reduced from time to time. In addition, the logistics is still unstable. At present, raw materials (large silicon wafers, chemicals and special gases) are still heavily used, and the shipment and transportation of semi-finished products and products are also quite unstable. If the city is closed for several months, the semiconductor wafer foundry and packaging and testing factories will have the opportunity to significantly reduce the load due to lack of materials, However, relevant companies believe that they can make up for the second quarter or annual revenue by means of overtime urgent orders.
II. E-commerce: uncertainty of demand and logistics
Shanghai is an important integrated circuit cluster in China, with the output value accounting for about 1 / 4 of the country. There are more than 700 key companies in the industry, involving design, manufacturing, sealing and testing, equipment, materials and other links, including Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) , TSMC, Huahong semiconductor, advanced semiconductor, riyueyue, Yingyeda, Heshuo and other wafer factories, sealing and testing factories and hardware manufacturing factories. At present, the production and feeding of some companies have been affected, However, in order to ensure the production progress, many companies have arranged R & D, management and other posts for online office, and the production posts basically live in the company. On the whole, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has had some impact on the production and logistics transportation of upstream chips and related materials in the electronic industry. If the epidemic situation can be controlled in a short time and enterprises resume production, it will have little impact, because downstream electronic companies have a certain inventory, conventional materials for half a month and important materials for one month.
Smart phone and IOT industry: at present, the demand of mobile phone and IOT industry is affected by the epidemic, and the overall demand is poor. Liu Deyin, chairman of TSMC, said that due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the epidemic blockade policies of Asian countries, the global demand for smart phones, personal computers, televisions and other consumer electronics products began to slow down. The supply side is less affected temporarily. First, the mobile phone terminal has a certain Inventory (predicted for 1-2 months), followed by a certain inventory of production raw materials. In addition, due to the obvious seasonal factors of mobile phones and IOT equipment, the production capacity is more elastic in the peak demand season, so the short-term impact can increase the output through overtime in the later stage.
Power semiconductor devices: the new energy (electric vehicle, photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, etc.) industry has a strong demand for power semiconductor devices. At present, IGBT chips are still in short supply. In view of the impact of the epidemic, Huahong semiconductor responded that the company’s production will not be interrupted. On the evening of March 27, it has recalled necessary personnel to return to the company’s dormitories and adopted closed management that can only enter and leave to ensure online operation Shanghai Lingang Holdings Co.Ltd(600848) Management Committee said that the Management Committee of the new area allocated it to key enterprises at the first time, including Jita semiconductor. Ensure the normal production of key production enterprises with large contribution, so that more than 80% of the output value contribution of the new area can be guaranteed.
PCB: at present, the PCB link is subject to certain negative impact, which is mainly divided into two aspects: first, from the demand side, in the early stage of epidemic sealing and control in Shenzhen, the delivery of goods in most of Shenzhen and its surrounding areas (such as Dongguan) has been delayed, and the delivery of goods by customers has also slowed down. For PCB / CCL manufacturing plants, the demand has slowed down accordingly, Some manufacturers in and around Shenzhen clearly perceived that the orders in March were lower than expected. At present, the epidemic situation in Shanghai is severe, and the demand inhibition caused by the suspension of the whole city in Shenzhen in the early stage may be replicated in Shanghai, that is, the epidemic situation has added great uncertainty to the demand for Q2 in Shanghai; Second, judging from the production of PCB / CCL link we know, the production is basically in order, but we have clearly felt that there are obstacles in the logistics transportation in Shanghai and surrounding areas (including Kunshan electronic Park). Now we can’t judge whether the subsequent logistics situation will be worse or better on the edge. If the sealing time exceeds expectations or other factors lead to worse marginal changes, It may affect the subsequent effective productivity of the whole industrial chain.
At present, the demand of Tesla in Jilin Province and Shanghai has been suspended for a week, accounting for 19.8% of the total output of cars in 2021, and the demand of Tesla in Shanghai is expected to continue to be restricted by the demand of Tesla in the upstream and downstream. From March 13 to March 27, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in China was only 37000, a decrease of 7% at the same time, and consumer demand weakened in the short term. 2) Upstream supply: some plastic particles and alloy materials used for connectors and molded glass and resin materials used for optical lenses are imported. The epidemic in Shanghai has led to logistics obstruction and tight supply of some raw materials. However, due to the raw material preparation of each enterprise for 3 ~ 6 months, the short-term impact is relatively limited. 3) Production side: relevant enterprises have no production base in Shanghai, so the production side has no impact for the time being. 4) Transportation side: Transportation obstruction has a certain impact on the revenue recognition of some enterprises in the first quarter. It is preliminarily estimated that the impact is less than 5%, which will be deferred to the second quarter.
III. automobile: Shanghai and Jilin, the centers of the epidemic, are important places for China’s automobile industry
Shanghai Pudong Lingang Tesla (800000 / year), Jinqiao GM (480000 / year), Anting SAIC Volkswagen (500000 / year), and Jilin has Audi, FAW Volkswagen, Hongqi and other factories. Considering the rapid relief of the epidemic in Jilin, FAW Volkswagen, Audi and Hongqi are expected to start construction in the near future. At present, GM in Shanghai is in closed production, and the production of Tesla and SAIC Volkswagen are disturbed. From the perspective of supply chain impact, except Tesla, other brands have more than one month’s inventory at the channel end, and the production line is flexible, which can increase production rapidly in the follow-up, with relatively little impact. Tesla currently arranges production orders for about 20 weeks, and production is disturbed or delivery is affected.
Risk warning: the global epidemic exceeded expectations; Interruption of industrial supply chain; Downstream demand impacted by the epidemic
