Three expectations look at the future trend of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Optimistic situation: if the conflict between Russia and Ukraine ends for a short time, there will be less intervention by western countries and the number of casualties will not increase, or it is similar to the Russian Georgian war in 2008, but the probability is small; In the meso situation, if Russia and Ukraine stop large-scale military conflict, but the economic sanctions of the United States and other western countries continue to increase, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may evolve into the Crimean crisis in 2014, but the actual situation may be more severe; In a pessimistic situation, if the United States and other NATO countries successively participate in the war and adopt comprehensive economic sanctions, the number of casualties will continue to increase, and the situation may deteriorate to the Gulf War in 1990, but the probability of occurrence is small.
The impact of geographical conflicts on commodity price fluctuations under the three expectations. In terms of energy, the Russian Georgian war had little change to the original trend of oil price. During the Crimean crisis, the highest increase in oil price was about 10%, the high fluctuation lasted about 6 months, and the increase in oil price during the Gulf War was more than 140%, but it lasted only about 3 months; In terms of raw materials, during the Russian Georgian war, the prices of nickel and tin rose by 21.0% and 23.7% respectively, but lasted less than one month. The Crimean crisis nickel increased by more than 45% and remained at a high level for four months. The Gulf War led to the highest increase of 10.6% and 26.1% in the CRB index of industrial raw materials and metals, which continued for three months Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) in terms of CBOT, the prices of soybeans, wheat and corn increased by 14.2%, 18.2% and 19.4% respectively under the influence of the Russian Georgian war. The rise cycle was less than one month. During the Crimean crisis, the upward and high fluctuations lasted about four months, with the highest increases of 17.2%, 31.1% and 20.0%. During the Gulf War, the price increases were - 12.6%, - 41.7% and - 26.3% respectively, all of which decreased, but the degree of decline was different, The impact of the war is not very significant; In terms of gold, under the Russian Georgian war, the price of gold rose by more than 10%, and the upward cycle was about one month. During the Crimean crisis, the price of gold rose by about 13.0%, and then fell. During the Gulf War, the maximum increase of gold price could reach 19.1%, and the fluctuation range increased.
Prediction of the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the trend of commodity prices. Energy: under optimistic circumstances, the international crude oil price may decline under the influence of supply and demand and monetary factors; In the meso situation, the high fluctuation of crude oil price depends on when Russia and Ukraine make substantive progress; In a pessimistic situation, crude oil prices are expected to continue to soar, with an increase of more than 140% from the beginning of the year to US $180 / barrel, and the duration is related to other supply sources. Depending on the situation of tight supply of natural gas in Russia or the resumption of supply in Europe; Raw materials: LME nickel has the highest increase of 132.7% in the year, and LME aluminum has increased by 41.5% compared with the beginning of the year. Under the optimistic or medium view, the overall impact on raw materials is small, but the prices of some products will be greatly affected. Under the pessimistic influence, the prices of industrial raw materials and metals will rise sharply driven by the continuous rise of fuel prices Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) : the prices of CBOT soybeans, wheat and corn increased by 26.8%, 70.7% and 29.4% respectively compared with the highest at the beginning of the year. It is optimistic that the relevant food prices will gradually decline, but if the situation remains tense, there may be a large food supply gap in the world; Precious metals: the biggest increase of gold price in the year has reached about 14.0%. It is optimistic that the gold price may continue to fall, and the high fluctuation of gold price is expected to fall later. However, the marginal effect of risk aversion is decreasing, and it continues to soar under pessimistic expectations, with an increased fluctuation range.
The impact of commodity price fluctuations on China's inflation. The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on commodity prices mainly affects the means of production, with a relatively large proportion of weight, or reversed the year-on-year growth rate of PPI for four consecutive months in March. If the subsequent progress is optimistic, PPI may continue to decline after a short recovery; If the progress is made according to the meso situation, PPI will still fall under the base effect in the medium and long term, but the range is limited; If it progresses according to the pessimistic situation, or continue to push up PPI again. In terms of CPI, the price rise of bulk commodities may lead to the upward movement of some CPI items, but it is less likely to push up CPI significantly, and CPI may maintain a moderate upward movement.
Risk tip: the geopolitical situation has further escalated, and the fluctuation of commodity prices has exceeded expectations.
