Macro categories:
At the national regular meeting held on April 6, the meeting pointed out the need to deploy timely use of monetary policy tools to more effectively support the development of the real economy. The first is to strengthen the implementation of prudent monetary policy. The second is to study and take measures to support consumption and effective investment. The third is to set up two special refinancing projects: scientific and technological innovation and inclusive pension. Recently, China's economy is facing some downward pressure. The National Health Commission said that the epidemic situation in Shanghai, Hebei, Fujian and Liaoning is still in the stage of rapid growth, and there is still a risk of community transmission. The upgrading of prevention and control policies in many places is bound to drag down offline consumption and travel, thus increasing the downward pressure on the short-term economy. In terms of commodities. At the macro level, China's three major PMIS significantly adjusted in March. Under the repeated impact of China's epidemic, the three major indexes of official manufacturing, non manufacturing and comprehensive PMI fell in March. At present, the severe epidemic situation in Shanghai will also drag down the follow-up export of China. At the micro level, the real estate and infrastructure with high correlation with commodity demand have not yet made significant efforts. Since March, the performance of real estate financing is still weak, the issuance of credit bonds and ABS of real estate enterprises is significantly depressed year-on-year, and the issuance progress of new special bonds for infrastructure is slow. At the micro level, according to our latest research, due to the impact of epidemic situation, snowfall, weak real estate and slow commencement of engineering projects, the downstream construction has declined year-on-year for two consecutive weeks, and began to decline slightly month on month. Under the game of strong expectation and weak reality, we still need to observe the signal of stabilizing and further improving domestic demand, and domestic demand industrial products remain neutral; Crude oil chain commodities need to be vigilant against the easing of the situation between Ukraine and Russia and the adjustment risks brought about by the conclusion of the US Iran nuclear negotiations. In addition, on March 31, the White House announced the release of the largest oil reserve in history and will release 1 million barrels of oil strategic reserves every day in the next six months. We need to pay attention to the implementation of the follow-up release plan; Affected by the situation in Ukraine and Russia, the global price of chemical fertilizer continues to rise, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) based on the supply bottleneck and cost transmission, the bullish logic is still relatively smooth; Moreover, with the support of dry weather, global inflation transmission and other factors, soft commodities such as cotton and sugar also deserve attention; At the precious metals level, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time, superimposed high inflation in the United States, and maintained the view of bargain hunting and long.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (cotton, sugar, soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; The cost of non-ferrous metals (domestic demand), non-ferrous metals (domestic demand), non-ferrous chemicals (domestic demand), non-ferrous metals (new industrial demand), and non-ferrous metals (foreign demand);
Stock index futures: neutral.
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
