Core view
[market performance] from March 28 to April 1, the CSI 300 index closed at 427616, up 3.08% in one week and down 13.44% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 328272, up 2.12% in one week and down 9.81% year to date. Among shenwanyi industries, real estate, building materials, food and beverage and other sectors performed better, among which the transportation industry increased by 4.96% weekly, ranking fourth; Since the beginning of the year, the transportation industry has decreased by 4.03%, ranking seventh; In terms of molecular industries, the top three performing industries in the transportation industry are shipping (+ 11.49%), ports (+ 8.03%) and highways (+ 5.25%).
[key information] in March 2022, China’s highway logistics freight rate index was 100.3 points, up 2.03% from the previous month, basically the same as the same period last year. According to the model index, the model index rebounded slightly month on month, which was basically the same as that of the same period last year. The vehicle index dominated by bulk commodities and regional transportation was 100.8 points, up 1.98% from the previous month and 0.03% from the same period last year. Among the LCL index, the LCL light goods index was 98.4 points, up 2.30% from the previous month and 0.22% from the same period of the previous year; The LCL heavy goods index was 100.6 points, up 1.93% from the previous month, unchanged from the same period last year. (China Federation of logistics and procurement)
[Key announcement] 1) Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) : it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first quarter of 2022 will be about RMB 27.6 billion, an increase of about RMB 12.15 billion compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of about 78.6%. 2) Shanghai International Port (Group) Co.Ltd(600018) : the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about RMB 5.18 billion in the first quarter of 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 75.6%.
[views of this week]
In 2021, the supply of shipping market lags behind the demand, and the trend of freight rate is obviously differentiated. 1) The insufficient transport capacity of the container industry promotes the upward movement of freight rates. In 2021, under the influence of multiple factors such as repeated covid-19 epidemic, increased transportation demand and limited transportation capacity supply, the global logistics supply chain continued to be challenged and impacted by complex situations such as port congestion, container shortage and inland transportation delay, and the supply-demand relationship of container transportation continued to be tight. In 2021, the average value of China’s export container freight rate composite index (CCFI) was 261554 points, with a year-on-year increase of 165.69%. 2) Dry bulk goods benefited from the release of demand for bulk commodities and showed a trend of simultaneous rise in volume and price. In 2021, the demand of the bulk commodity market increased and the transport capacity increased slowly. The dry bulk shipping market showed a trend of both volume and price. Global dry bulk freight rates rose. According to Clarkson’s statistics, the average TCE revenue of various ship types of dry bulk cargo transportation in 2021 reached US $26887 / day, with a year-on-year increase of 185%. The global dry bulk cargo volume is growing on the whole. According to Clarkson’s statistics, in 2021, the seaborne volume of iron ore, coal, grain, small bulk cargo and dry bulk cargo increased by 1%, 6%, 2%, 5% and 4% respectively. The growth of global dry bulk cargo capacity slowed down. According to Clarkson’s statistics, in 2021, the capacity of the global dry bulk cargo fleet increased by 3.6%, reaching 945 million dwt, with a growth rate of 0.3 percentage points slower than that in 2020. 3) Oil transportation market. 3) The slow recovery of demand in the international oil transportation market superimposed on the excess capacity, and the tanker freight rate hit a record low. From the perspective of freight rate, the international oil transportation market experienced a rare continuous downturn in history in 2021. The average equivalent time charter rate (TCE) of VLCC ship type td3c (Middle East China) route is only – 518 US dollars / day, which is the lowest annual average point in the history of the route and 48179 US dollars / day in 2020. TCE of representative routes of other major ship types decreased by about 70% – 100% year-on-year. From the perspective of transportation demand, although the global epidemic has been repeated many times, with the continued popularization of vaccines and the introduction of more financial support policies, the global economy can further recover in 2021, which promotes the continuous improvement of oil consumption, but the recovery of demand throughout the year is relatively mild. According to Drury’s statistics, the demand for crude oil tankers in 2021 is 9891 billion ton nautical miles, lower than 99580 and 10586 billion ton nautical miles in 2020 and 2019. From the perspective of tanker capacity supply, 35 VLCCs were delivered and 17 were disassembled in 2021, with a net increase of 18. At the same time, the release of offshore oil storage and transportation capacity has exacerbated the situation of excess tanker transportation capacity, making the oil transportation market lack the driving force for recovery.
Investment advice
Under the tight transportation capacity of the container and dry bulk cargo industry, it has the advantage of scale, and the leading enterprises with global routes are expected to benefit. The relevant targets: Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) , China Merchants Energy Shipping Co.Ltd(601872) .
Risk tips
Aggravation of epidemic disturbance; Trade friction; Geopolitical conflict.
