Review 2021: the pressure on NBV of life insurance dragged down EV, and the pressure on comprehensive reform of auto insurance subsided
In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of EVs, the year-on-year growth rate of listed insurance companies in the year to 2021 is further slower than that of 2020, and the year-on-year growth of evvs in 2021. In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of the year-on-year growth rate of the year-on-year growth rate of the year-on-year growth rate of the EVS of listed insurance companies in the 2021 year to 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of evevs in the year-on-year growth rate of the year-on-year growth rate of the year-on-year growth rate of the year-on-year growth rate of the year-on-year growth of EVs in 2021. In 2021, EV and year-on-year-on-on-year growth respectively: the 6016262626262628 theyear-on-year growth slowed down and the negative deviation of operating experience. The comprehensive reform of auto insurance completed its first year of operation in September 2021, the industry ecology was improved, and the year-on-year pressure on premium was relieved.
Life insurance: looking up and doing things, NBV is still under pressure, and the industry has stepped into transformation
In 2021, the NBV of the five listed insurance companies were China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) 44.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year ratio of - 23.3%, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) 37.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year ratio of - 23.6%, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 60113.41 billion yuan, with a year-on-year ratio of - 24.8%, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) 59.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year ratio of - 34.9%, The People'S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) 39.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year ratio of - 34.9%. The pressure on the value of new orders is mainly due to the pressure on the value rate of new orders and the premium of new orders, which are dragged down by internal and external factors of the industry. The value rate of new orders is affected downward by product structure and actuarial assumptions. At the same time, high-quality transformation brings active emptiness, and there is no significant improvement in production capacity, which drags down the premium of new orders. At present, the industry is facing difficulties such as the mismatch between the channel circle and the customer circle, and the mismatch between the channel ability and the customer demand. The inflection point of industry transformation still needs to be further waited.
Property insurance: the premium is low before and high after, and the cost structure is optimized
The pressure of comprehensive reform of auto insurance is relieved, and the premium is low before and high after. In 2021, the year-on-year property insurance premiums were 448.3 billion yuan for PICC Property Insurance, a year-on-year increase of + 3.8%, 270 billion yuan for Ping An Property Insurance, a year-on-year increase of - 5.5%, and 152.6 billion yuan for CPIC property insurance, a year-on-year increase of + 3.3%. The comprehensive reform of Auto insurance was officially implemented on September 19, 2021. Subsequently, the impact of the decline in average auto insurance premiums gradually subsided, and the auto insurance premiums rose significantly year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2021. The overall comprehensive cost ratio structure of property insurance was optimized to a certain extent, the expense ratio continued to decline, the loss ratio increased significantly, and returned to the origin of insurance. The loss ratio increased to 69.6% (+ 8.2pct) of CPIC property insurance, 73.6% (+ 7.4pct) of PICC Property Insurance and 67.0% (+ 6.5pct) of Ping An Property Insurance.
In 2022, life insurance will still be in the critical stage of transformation, and property insurance may exceed expectations driven by auto insurance
Considering that the manpower scale is low and the guarantee demand is still difficult to develop, NBV, a listed insurance company, may still be under pressure in the first quarter of 2022, and the performance inflection point may appear in the second half of 2022 affected by the base. However, the transformation inflection point still needs to be observed. We expect that the marginal improvement of development mode, manpower and production capacity will be observed as early as the first quarter of 2023. At present, the transformation of the liability side of life insurance faces a game of long-term and short-term interests. How to balance will test the wisdom and experience of the management. Companies with firm transformation attitude and decisive action may face greater pressure on NBV in the short term. The increase of average vehicle premium, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the scale of stock vehicles may improve the industrial premium of vehicle insurance. The advantages of head insurance companies in pricing, service and data may lead to the optimization of market pattern, and the market concentration may be improved. In the short term, the liability side business performance is relatively good and the asset side flexibility is relatively large. Insurance companies may benefit from Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , which has obvious comprehensive financial advantages and gradually promotes the resolution of real estate risks, and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China property insurance; In the long run, the transformation attitude is firm. Companies with successful transformation experience are expected to take the lead in successful transformation. China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) .
Risk tip: the economic recovery is less than expected; The resistance of industry transformation exceeded expectations; The epidemic situation is repeated.
