\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 298 Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) )
Event:
Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) released the annual report of 2021. The company achieved revenue of 10.675 billion yuan (year-on-year + 19.50%), net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.309 billion yuan (year-on-year – 4.59%), and non net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.060 billion yuan (year-on-year – 13.14%). Among them, Q4’s revenue was 3.081 billion yuan (year-on-year + 22.91%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 291 million yuan (year-on-year – 19.06%), and the non net profit attributable to the parent company was 161 million yuan (year-on-year – 41.01%).
The company set a 22 year target: the sales revenue was 12.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.18%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.372 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.85%.
Comments:
Revenue analysis: the revenue of yeast increased steadily, and the rise of sugar price brought high growth. The company achieved a revenue of 10.675 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.50% (Q1: + 29.55%; Q2: + 12.50%; Q3: + 13.22%; Q4: + 22.91%). The growth rate fluctuated greatly in each quarter, mainly related to different base numbers, hoarding before price increases and repeated epidemics. 1) Sub products: the sales of the four main categories reached 9.517 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.84%, including 7.984 billion yuan for yeast series, a year-on-year increase of + 15.10% (including volume + 11.28%, price + 3.43%, cost + 15.87%), 1.051 billion yuan for sugar, a year-on-year increase of + 68.39% (including volume + 10.71%, price + 52.1%, cost + 47.75%), 419 million yuan for packaging, a year-on-year increase of + 22.58%, 63 million yuan for dairy products, a year-on-year increase of 34.98%, and 1.089 billion yuan for other categories, a year-on-year increase of 15.59%; 2) Sub regions: the operating revenue in mainland China was 7.785 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.31%, and that in overseas regions was 2.822 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 12.01%; 3) Dealers: the company had 20200 dealers at the end of the year, with a net increase of 1934 in the whole year, including 1401 in China and 533 abroad. 4) Sub channels: offline sales reached 6.925 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.75%, and online sales reached 3.682 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.97%.
Profit analysis: the price of molasses is rising, the cost is under pressure, the freight is rising, and the overseas gross profit margin is under pressure. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.309 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 4.59% (Q1: + 45.74%; Q2: – 7.19%; Q3: – 35.23%; Q4: – 19.06%). The annual gross profit margin was 27.34%, with a year-on-year increase of -6.66pct (China: 30.71%; abroad: 18.14%), which was mainly caused by the sharp rise in molasses cost and the rise in overseas freight. Among them, molasses price increased by 30-40% in 21 years compared with 20 years. During the period, the expense rate was 14.81% (year-on-year -1.42pct), of which the sales expense rate was 6.26% (year-on-year -0.97pct), which was mainly due to the decline of employee salary and publicity expense rate. Among them, the gross profit margin of Q4 was 21.80%, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.57%, mainly due to the change of accounting standards. Therefore, we are concerned that the gross sales difference of Q4 was 15.43%, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.16%, mainly due to the continuous rise of molasses price.
Medium term outlook: according to the three cycles, 22 years are still under pressure, and the profits in 23 and 24 years are expected to be released. The company set a 22 year target: the sales revenue was 12.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18.18%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.372 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.85%. The company’s profit is affected by three cycles: price increase cycle, molasses cycle and production capacity cycle. In the medium term, the profit in 22 years is under pressure, and the profit in 23 and 24 years is expected to increase. (1) Price increase cycle: the company has carried out three rounds of price increases in 2021, raising the average price of more than 90% of products by more than 15%, which is expected to effectively increase the ton price of yeast. (2) Molasses cycle: sugarcane production is expected to reach a new low in 2022, enter the upward cycle in 2023 and after, and reach the peak of this round of production cycle in 2025. Molasses price is expected to be high in 22 years and gradually decline in 23-25 years. (3) Capacity cycle: 2020 is a new round of capacity construction cycle. The centralized production period is 22 years, which is expected to increase the pressure on the cost side. If the capacity is released for 2 years, it will benefit the profits in 23 and 24 years.
Future outlook: the revenue of 20 billion yuan in the 14th five year plan is expected to be realized. 20212025 is the five years of the 14th five year plan of the company, and the company has set a revenue target of 20 billion yuan in the 14th five year plan. In terms of product structure, yeast products will maintain a steady growth of 10% to 20%; Yeast derived products will achieve a rapid growth of 20% +; At the same time, the company will also involve some new product fields, such as biomedicine, biological fermentation, etc. the company will make use of the current production equipment, technical advantages, global channels and customer resources to extend and expand the downstream relatively deeply, and make layout and investment in industries with high gross profit and small pattern. It is an inevitable trend for the development of yeast and derivative products in the future, although some of these products can not be sold in China, It can only be exported as raw materials, and the scale of the industry is relatively small, but it can represent the direction of biological fermentation in the future.
Profit forecast and rating: give “overweight” rating Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) is the absolute leader of China’s yeast industry. The revenue growth rate has remained above 15% in recent years, maintaining stable growth. Third, the cycle of molasses price increase is mainly affected by the cycle of molasses price increase. In the long run, the revenue of 20 billion yuan in the 14th five year plan is expected to be realized smoothly. In the medium term, it is still under pressure in 22 years, and the profits in 23 and 24 years are expected to be released. Without considering the impact of fixed increase and diluted share capital, we expect the revenue growth rate from 2022 to 2024 to be 18%, 16% and 15% respectively; The growth rate of net profit was 5%, 28% and 26% respectively; The corresponding EPS is 1.65, 2.12 and 2.67 yuan / share. We give 25 times PE according to EPS in 2023, corresponding to the current one-year target price of equity of 53 yuan, and give the company a “overweight” rating for the first time.
Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; Price fluctuation of raw materials; Food safety issues;
