\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 276 Changchun Bcht Biotechnology Co(688276) )
The company’s application for production of blister vaccine products was accepted, with significant first mover advantage
According to the company’s announcement, the company recently received the acceptance notice of the application for marketing license of live attenuated herpes zoster vaccine issued by the drug evaluation center of the State Drug Administration, which means that the application for production of the company’s products has been officially accepted. We expect to be approved for listing at the end of 2022 or early 2023. At present, China’s herpes zoster vaccine is only imported from GSK. The competition pattern is good. The company’s product R & D progress is far ahead of other domestic products. It is expected to become the first domestic herpes zoster vaccine product. The listing in the future will bring a certain first mover advantage to the company.
Recombinant and attenuated herpes zoster technology products have their own advantages, and attenuated vaccine still has market space
Herpes zoster (Hz) is an acute infectious skin disease caused by reactivation of varicella zoster virus (VZV). The incidence rate of incidence of herpes zoster in Asia Pacific region is about 1%, and the incidence rate increases with age. The incidence rate of herpes zoster is more than 5% after 40-50 years old. In patients with herpes zoster, about 9% ~ 34% of patients with herpes zoster will have postherpetic neuralgia, with a pain rating of more than 7. It belongs to severe pain, which seriously affects the quality of life of patients. There is no specific drug for herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia, so vaccination of herpes zoster vaccine is an effective means to prevent herpes zoster. At present, Zostavax (live attenuated vaccine technology) and shinrix (recombinant protein vaccine technology) have been listed in the world. Although the recombinant technology is more advanced in terms of technical level, in fact, the two vaccines have their own advantages in practical application. ① The protective efficacy of recombinant vaccine is higher than that of attenuated vaccine, but the safety of attenuated vaccine is higher than that of recombinant vaccine; ② Recombinant technology vaccine needs 2 doses / person, and attenuated technology vaccine only needs 1 dose / person, so the compliance of attenuated technology vaccine is higher; ③ In terms of accessibility, in terms of price and capacity supply, it is predicted that China’s attenuated technology vaccine will have higher accessibility.
Investment advice
Considering the impact of covid-19 epidemic, we lowered the company’s profit forecast from 2022 to 2023, and the operating revenue from 2022 to 2023 was reduced from 2.114/3.686 billion yuan to 1.605/2.390 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased from 540 / 942 million yuan to 485 / 682 million yuan; EPS decreased from 1.31/2.28 yuan to 1.18/1.65 yuan. The profit forecast for 2024 is added. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2024 will be 2.860 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 819 million yuan and EPS will be 198 yuan. Corresponding to the closing price of 53.60 yuan / share on April 6, 2022, PE is 45 / 32 / 27 times, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tips
The sales of chickenpox vaccine and nasal spray influenza vaccine products are less than the expected risk; There is a risk of uncertainty in the progress of follow-up review and approval of herpes zoster vaccine and the time to obtain the approval of drug production registration.
