Looking back on Wednesday’s A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low, and then the stock index fluctuated. The Shenzhen Composite Index turned red at the beginning and plunged back quickly. Driven by bank stocks, the Shanghai index turned red in the afternoon and dived down again at the end. The gem has always maintained a weak shock, and the overall market ushered in a shock consolidation pattern.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, the main line of the current market is steady growth. Especially after the deregulation policies in many places, the real estate sector has continued to strengthen and began to spread upstream and downstream. In essence, this is an industry with reversal of difficulties. After the extreme pressure on valuation and killing performance in the previous two years, it has ushered in a recovery. Similarly, the education sector also had a strong performance on Wednesday. The common feature of these sectors is that they have experienced long-term adjustment in the early stage, and the valuation is cost-effective, In the current context of low risk appetite, there has been a strong repair.
In terms of follow-up, after the market bottomed out and rebounded, we should not be blindly optimistic , the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates in May is too hawkish, which will still suppress the valuation of growth direction, and the market probability is still repeated. In terms of operation, we can focus on the varieties with sufficient adjustment in the early stage, absorb them in batches and chase them up cautiously.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the index differentiation was obvious on Wednesday, the Shanghai index closed stubbornly, the gem index was under pressure, and the market profit-making effect was good, it is expected that the market will continue to shake and repair, pay attention to the change of volume and energy and the rotation of sectors , and operationally, it is suggested to pay attention to the industries such as finance, real estate, building materials, steel, electrical equipment and TMT.
As far as the future is concerned, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that recently, with the gradual strengthening of recovery concepts such as real estate, engineering construction, steel and cement building materials, some funds have been attracted to continue to be long. In addition, some high dividend and undervalued blue chip stocks are obviously sought after by OTC funds, and market hot spots are actively brewing . It is expected that the short-term slight consolidation of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight shock of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the investment opportunities in banking, real estate, engineering construction, medicine and other industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Xiangcai Securities believes that the second quarter of A-Shares is the time window for adjusting the position structure . Some A-share sectors have been fully adjusted and have entered the relatively undervalued area, and the valuation of some sectors is still not cheap after adjustment. At the current time point, in the second quarter and the whole year, has three major investment opportunities with high certainty . 1) Investment in infrastructure sector with steady growth; 2) Pig breeding sector with pig cycle restarted in the second half of the year; 3) The banking sector with historically low valuations.
Macroscopically, Guosheng Securities pointed out that under the influence of adverse factors such as the epidemic, international tensions and the Fed’s interest rate increase and contraction, China’s economic data did not exceed expectations. At the same time, is limited by volume and energy, so it is difficult for the market to form an upward force. The probability of reversing the market in the short term is low, and the shock consolidation market may run through .
From the perspective of sectors, dilemma reversed (or oversold rebound), such as traditional Chinese medicine, real estate industry chain, banks and other themes have a certain safety cushion under the current weak market, or are more favored by the main funds . From the midline level, green power, chemicals, semiconductors and other sectors with high performance growth expectations will gradually have valuation advantages and can bargain hunting layout and band operation with continuous adjustment.
In terms of operational strategy, China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) said that (1) grasp the main line of steady growth, focus on the policy spears such as “double carbon” and digital economy, and look for a chassis with definite profitability and desirable valuation space . From the perspective of cost performance, banks, building materials and transportation are in the double low range of current PE valuation and PE historical quantile (calculated from January 1, 2020) and have the characteristics of “steady growth”, Policy driven, expected to maintain good performance in the year, less affected by external environment factors, suitable for defense configuration. This year is the first year of “counting from the east to the west”. With the successive implementation of favorable policies, the high growth of the data center industrial chain has been further confirmed and can be used as an offensive configuration.
(2) coal and petrochemical industry still have room to rise under the logical support of the situation in Russia and Ukraine , real estate, transportation and banks highlight “stability” throughout the year, and the growth is relatively the most deterministic, which can be used as a defensive configuration.
(3) seek the most definite direction of prosperity in the long term, and continue to grasp the main line of “three new” – new energy, new manufacturing and new information . Manufacturing costs and supply chain repression will be improved, and auto parts and high-end machinery may benefit. With the development of domestic substitution, the incremental space of semiconductor and IOT still exists under the trend of anti globalization, but the right-hand opportunities still need to be waiting for the right side to appear in the short term.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) said that industry allocation , 1) the performance advantages of upstream resource products continue to highlight and continue to recommend coal and aluminum driven by “price difference”; 2) Industry driven by “policy”: real estate; The real estate industry has valuation repair space due to the relaxation of policy margin, and the current market is not over yet; 3) Middle and downstream industries benefiting from the improvement of industry structure: textile manufacturing benefiting from the rise of cotton price; Agriculture in which the imbalance between supply and demand drives the price rise effect (soybean and pig breeding); Shipping ports benefiting from European and American sanctions against Russia and the increase of maritime energy demand; In addition, there are electrical equipment benefiting from the high prosperity of the new energy industry.
