On April 6, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) three pig breeding enterprises successively disclosed the sales data in March. Data show that the number of pigs sold by the above-mentioned companies increased significantly in March; Pig prices are still bottoming down, but the decline narrowed month on month.
On March 31, according to the monitoring of the national development and Reform Commission, the recent pig grain price ratio continued to be lower than 5:1, which was in the level-1 early warning range of excessive decline. The national development and Reform Commission, together with relevant parties, carried out the collection and storage of the third batch of central frozen pork reserves during the year. If the follow-up pig prices continue to operate at a low level, the state will continue to carry out the collection and storage work and promote the return of pig prices to a reasonable range as soon as possible.
Some analysts believe that the current pig price has been low for a long time, and there is little possibility of further sharp decline.
3 month’s sales volume increased significantly
According to the announcement, in March, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) sold 5.986 million pigs (including 527000 piglets), and the sales revenue was 7.432 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of 111.30% and 5.30% respectively.
Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) said that the price of commercial pigs showed a downward trend in March, and the average sales price of commercial pigs of the company was 11.67 yuan / kg, down 5.74% from January to February 2022. By the end of March 2022, the number of sows that the company can breed is 2.752 million.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) announcement disclosed that in March 2022, the company sold 1448400 pigs (including hairy pigs and fresh products), with an income of 2.106 billion yuan, and the average sales price of hairy pigs was 12.17 yuan / kg, with month on month changes of 35.49%, 33.71% and – 3.03% respectively, and year-on-year changes of 143.63%, 14.33% and – 53.55% respectively.
Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) also said that the sales volume and income of the company’s pigs increased month on month in March, which was mainly due to the fewer sales days in February and the less slaughter of pigs; The company’s pig sales increased year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in seedling investment and production performance; The average selling price of the company’s pigs decreased year-on-year, mainly due to the changes in China’s pig market.
Another pig breeding enterprise Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) also disclosed sales data in March.
in Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 3, the sales volume of pigs totaled 197700, the total sales revenue was 220 million yuan, and the average sales price of pigs was 12.87 yuan / kg (excluding the influence of piglets and breeding pigs, the average price of commercial pigs was 11.96 yuan / kg). The month on month changes of pig sales, sales revenue and average sales price were 192.77%, 156.53% and – 3.92% respectively, with year-on-year changes of 171.44%, 9.94% and – 75.92% respectively.
From January to March, jinxinnong sold 335800 pigs, with a cumulative sales revenue of 404 million yuan, an increase of 54.96% and – 34.44% respectively over the same period last year.
Combing the above data, it can be found that in March, the pig sales of the three listed companies increased significantly year-on-year, but the growth of sales revenue lagged significantly, because the pig price operated at a low level for a long time. In addition, pig prices continued to bottom out in March, with a narrow range around 12 yuan / kg.
pig prices continue to bottom
Compared with the monitoring data of market markets and collection points in 500 counties by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the average price of pigs per kilogram in China was 12.52 yuan in the fourth week of March, down 0.8% month on month and 54.4% year-on-year; The average price of pork per kilogram was 22.38 yuan, down 1.2% month on month, 49.2% year-on-year and 22.6% in total; The average price of piglets per kilogram was 23.86 yuan, down 1.2% month on month and 74.4% year-on-year.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the number of pigs sold nationwide in January increased by 23.6% year-on-year, the number of pigs sold in February increased by 8.2% year-on-year, and the number of pigs slaughtered by designated slaughtering enterprises from January to February increased by 30.8% year-on-year. By the end of 2021, there were 449 million pigs in China, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. These pigs will be listed from January to June this year. Based on this calculation, the pork market supply was still at a high level in the first half of the year.
Chen Guanghua, deputy director of the animal husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, said that the downward trend will continue for some time. The pig price may fall to the bottom of about 12 yuan per kilogram in March and April, and the breeding loss will increase. It is hoped that the majority of farmers can keep a close eye on the market, control costs, prevent epidemics, step on the rhythm, and survive the relatively difficult stage of pig production and operation in the near future.
According to the production cost data in recent years, the specific price of pig grain at the break even point of pig production is about 7 ∶ 1 When the specific price of pig grain is lower than 5:1, it is regarded as entering the level-1 early warning range of excessive decline. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the national pig grain price ratio in February was 4.90 ∶ 1, down 0.51 points from January.
However, since March, the central and local governments have comprehensively started the purchase and storage of pork, alleviating the situation of the rapid decline of pig prices, and the decline of pig prices has gradually narrowed.
Feng Yonghui, an analyst at sozhu.com, analyzed that in the short term, it has entered April and there is still one month to go before the May Day holiday. There is basically no room for pig prices to explore and there is no possibility of a sharp rise. After all, the current is a seasonal off-season consumption, which has a great impact on the overall catering consumption, so that the support for the current pork consumption is also relatively limited. Therefore, the pig market will maintain a weak and volatile situation in the short term.
