Current investment tips:
In 2022q1, the range of overseas energy prices fluctuated after rising rapidly. China's energy prices are mainly stable, and the cost advantage of the chemical industry is significant.
Since 2022, affected by geopolitics and supply-demand pattern, Brent oil price has increased rapidly. The average price of 2022q1 is $102.39/barrel, up 28.21% month on month. As of April 5, 2022, Brent oil price is $107.85/barrel, maintaining a range shock pattern. At present, overseas oil and gas prices remain high, while China's energy prices are mainly stable, superimposed with the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the cost advantage of China's chemical industry continues to expand, and the profitability of some sub industries has increased significantly. According to the profit forecast of 59 mainstream chemical companies tracked by us in 2022q1, the weighted average EPS of 2022q1 is expected to be 0.45 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.8% and a month on month increase of 13.5%. The performance is in line with expectations. It is estimated that the sub industries with large month on month increase in net profit in 2022q1 are mainly potassium fertilizer, phosphorus compound fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry, nitrogen fertilizer and coal chemical industry, viscose, chlor alkali, soda ash, pesticide, tire, etc; Spandex and fluorochemical industry fell significantly.
The high price of overseas oil and gas drives the upward price of MDI, and the superimposed TDI maintains a boom high. It is expected that the performance of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) q1 will increase slightly month on month; The growth rate of China's energy price is lower than that of overseas. The cost advantages of Chinese enterprises such as coal chemical industry, chlor alkali and soda ash continue to expand, and the profitability of subdivision leader Q1 is strong. The overseas MDI boom remains high, and the TDI boom is improved due to the overhaul of superposition devices. It is estimated that Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 2022q1 is 5.5 billion yuan (yoy-17%, QoQ + 8%, which refers to the net profit attributable to the parent company, the same below). The rise of oil and gas prices has expanded the cost advantage of various coal chemical products. It is estimated that Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) 2022q1 will be 2.3 billion yuan (YoY + 46%, QoQ + 40%) Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) 2022q1 is 1.2 billion yuan (YoY + 20%, QoQ + 20%). The high prices of natural gas and some basic chemicals, combined with the low inventory in China, support the boom of chlor alkali, soda ash and other products. It is estimated that Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) 2022q1 will be 400 million yuan (yoy-33%, QoQ + 169%) Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) 2022q1 is 200 million yuan (YoY + 207%, QoQ + 9%) Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) 2022q1 is 780 million yuan (YoY + 134%, qoq-73%).
Agrochemical industry: high overseas energy prices, superimposed geopolitical influence, and the global fertilizer boom is rising; The price transmission of pesticide products lags behind, and the price difference of 22q1 continues to expand. The global energy cost has increased, supporting the high prosperity of phosphate fertilizer. It is estimated that 6 Ningxia Orient Tantalum Industry Co.Ltd(000962) 022q1 will be 1.64 billion yuan (YoY + 185%, QoQ + 105%) Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) 2022q1 is 1.7 billion yuan (YoY + 379%, qoq-3%) Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) 2022q1 is 375 million yuan (YoY + 10%, QoQ + 79%). The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the export of Russian potash fertilizer, adding that Belarus has been subject to international sanctions, resulting in a short impact on the global potash supply. It is estimated that Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) 2022q1 will be 3 billion yuan (YoY + 278%, QoQ + 443%). Pesticides: it is estimated that Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) 2022q1 is 800 million yuan (YoY + 80%, QoQ + 287%), Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) 2021q1 is 470 million yuan (YoY + 67%, QoQ + 4%), Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) 2021q1 is 160 million yuan (yoy-1%, QoQ + 100%), Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) 2021q1 is 400 million yuan (YoY + 316%, QoQ + 14%).
Tire field: with the gradual relief of shipping pressure and the recovery of overseas epidemic, the global travel demand is expected to support the recovery of the industry. It is estimated that Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) 2022q1 will be 180 million yuan (yoy-64%, QoQ + 80%) Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) 2022q1 is 320 million yuan (yoy-20%, QoQ + 3%) Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) 2022q1 is 250 million yuan (YoY + 10%, QoQ + 39%).
In the field of new materials: the acceleration of import substitution, coupled with the rapid expansion of downstream production capacity, Chinese semiconductor material enterprises are expected to usher in rapid growth, which is good for new material enterprises in related fields. Semiconductor materials: it is estimated that Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) 2022q1 will be 140 million yuan (YoY + 15%, QoQ + 133%) Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) 2022q1 is 70 million yuan (YoY + 86%, qoq-5%); Jingrui shares 2022q1 is 35 million yuan (YoY + 52%, qoq-13%) Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) 2022q1 is 40 million yuan (YoY + 44%, QoQ + 52%) Phichem Corporation(300398) 2022q1 is 133 million yuan (YoY + 95%, QoQ + 15%); As for other new materials, the Sixth National Committee of the Communist Party of China has steadily promoted favorable zeolite molecular sieve and ceramic materials: it is estimated that Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) 2022q1 will be 230 million yuan (YoY + 75%, QoQ + 71%) Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) 2022q1 is 230 million yuan (YoY + 24%, QoQ + 19%); Lithium battery materials: it is estimated that Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) 2022q1 will be 500 million yuan (YoY + 221%, QoQ + 14%). Carbon fiber, aramid and other military materials: it is estimated that Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) 2022q1 is 185 million yuan (YoY + 5%, qoq-24%).
Other sub sectors: strong demand for sugar free and low sugar beverages; The pattern of vitamin industry continues to improve; Titanium ore and titanium dioxide maintain a high level of prosperity; Fluorine chemical industry is temporarily in off-season demand; Weak terminal demand and high spandex inventory. Sweetener: it is estimated that Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) 2022q1 will be 460 million yuan (YoY + 119%, qoq-1%). Vitamin: it is estimated that 002 Guangdong Jushen Logistics Company Limited(001202) 2q1 will be 1.1 billion yuan (yoy-3%, QoQ + 17%) 6 Shenzhen Baoming Technology Co.Ltd(002992) 022q1 is 230 million yuan (yoy-37%, QoQ + 4%). Titanium dioxide: it is estimated that Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) 2022q1 will be 1.65 billion yuan (YoY + 55%, QoQ + 12%). Fluorine chemical industry: it is estimated that Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) 2022q1 will be 300 million yuan (YoY + 2434%, qoq-65%) China Kings Resources Group Co.Ltd(603505) 2022q1 is 50 million yuan (YoY + 18%, qoq-34%).
Spandex: it is estimated that Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) 2022q1 will be 1.2 billion yuan (yoy-27%, qoq-35%). Dyes: it is estimated that Zhejiang Longsheng Group Co.Ltd(600352) 2022q1 will be 450 million yuan (yoy-58%, QoQ + 7%) Zhejiang Runtu Co.Ltd(002440) 2022q1 is 200 million yuan (YoY + 13%, QoQ + 3%).
Maintain the "optimistic" rating of the industry. In 2022, the price of overseas chemical fertilizer continued to rise, and China's export was supplemented by price, focusing on nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizer.
Traditional industries: stick to value, pay more attention to alpha in the front line, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (long-term high R & D investment + high capital expenditure to support development), Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (benefit from the expansion of oil coal ratio, accelerate the expansion and layout of new energy and new materials in Dezhou + Jingzhou), Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) (Youjia project continues to promote the growth of the company, and pesticide innovation is expected to become the main development direction in the future) Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) (the global leader in vitamins and the continuous implementation of large capital development support to lay a foundation for long-term growth), Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) (the titanium industry maintains an upward trend and arranges new energy materials), Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (the global leader in sweeteners and the superposition of high growth tracks and capacity expansion opens a new round of growth), Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) (China's new retail + global capacity expansion is expected to become the world's first-line leader), Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) (improvement of equity structure + acceleration of capital expenditure).
Attention to subdivided leaders: pay attention to Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) and zangge mining (double leaders of potassium and lithium). With the implementation of the contract price of potassium fertilizer, the price difference of potash fertilizer outside China is expected to narrow, and the lithium extraction from Salt Lake is expected to expand steadily. The phosphorus chemical industry, the titanium dioxide, and the integrated layout of the enterprise in the integrated layout of the integrated layout. Iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate. New energy materials, iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate. Focus on the ' Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 96 Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Stanley Agriculture Group Co.Ltd(002588) , Anhui Liuguo Chemical Co.Ltd(600470) Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) Cnnc Hua Yuan Titanium Dioxide Co.Ltd(002145) Anhui Annada Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(002136) ； Metal silicon and organosilicon Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Indusyrial Group Co.Ltd(600596) ; Fluorine chemical related companies pay attention to China Kings Resources Group Co.Ltd(603505) , Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) , Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) ; The rising price of staple grain drives the growth of agrochemical demand. It is suggested to pay attention to Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) , Limin Group Co.Ltd(002734) , Hailir Pesticides And Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(603639) ; Coal chemical industry leaders Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) ; The auto industry chain pays attention to Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) , Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) , Shenma Industry Co.Ltd(600810) , Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) , Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) ; Water reducing agent faucet Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ; Methionine bottom inversion Bluestar Adisseo Company(600299) ; Soda ash focuses on Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) , Shandong Haihua Co.Ltd(000822) , Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) .
Market hot spots gradually switch to segmentation and growth. Recommended attention 1 Semiconductor materials: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Guangdong Huate Gas Co.Ltd(688268) , Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co.Ltd(603078) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) ; Panel materials Puyang Huicheng Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300481) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , Phichem Corporation(300398) ; 2. Wind power photovoltaic materials:
\u3000\u30003 Minsheng Holdings Co.Ltd(000416) 00378； 3. Tail gas catalytic materials Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Aofu Environmental Technology Co.Ltd(688021) ; 4. Lithium battery materials: Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) , Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co.Ltd(603867) , phosphorus chemical industry, etc; 5. Military materials: Yantai Tayho Advanced Materials Co.Ltd(002254) ; 6. Bio based materials Cathay Biotech Inc(688065) , Ningxia Xinri Hengli Steel Wire Rope Co.Ltd(600165) , Anhui Huaheng Biotechnology Co.Ltd(688639) ; 7. Fine chemical materials: Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) , Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) , Shandong Head Co.Ltd(002810) , Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co.Ltd(603867) .
Core hypothetical risks: 1) the progress of new projects in the industry is less than expected; 2) Blocked exports led to a sharp drop in the prices of some chemical products.
