Introduction to this report:
Over the past week, the valuation of A-Shares has increased or decreased, the market has warmed up after the previous decline, and the short-term risk expectation bottomed out is the core logic of the recent market interpretation. Structurally, large cap stocks led gains, while real estate and infrastructure related sectors led gains.
Summary:
Over the past week, the valuation of A-Shares has risen more or fallen less, led by structurally stable sectors and large cap stocks. Market valuations rose more or fell less in the past week. Among the major indexes, the price earnings ratio of Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 6.7%. From the perspective of structure: 1) in terms of general styles, the valuation of each sector has increased more or decreased less, and the stable sector has led the rise; In the primary industry, the valuation rose more or fell less. From the perspective of CITIC industry, the real estate PE quantile rose by 26.1%, while the petroleum and petrochemical PE quantile fell by 4.7%. 2) In terms of large, medium and small cap stocks, last week, the PE quantile of large cap stocks rose by 3.2%, the quantile of small cap stocks rose by 3.2%, and the middle cap stocks fell by 0.2%. In addition, the market heat has increased in the past week, the turnover rate and turnover of major indexes have increased more or decreased, the balance of the two financial institutions has continued to fall, and the attention of the stock market has decreased.
Valuation: the valuation fell generally, led by the Shenzhen Component Index
1) sector: PE valuation of each sector rose more or fell less last week, led by Shenzhen composite index. From the perspective of the historical quantile change of PE (TTM), the PE valuation of various sectors rose more or fell less last week. The PE quantile of Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 6.7%, and the gem composite led the decline. From the historical quantile change of Pb (LF), the valuation of Pb in each sector index rose more or fell less, led by the rise of 4.0% in the 300 Pb quantile in Shanghai and Shenzhen.
2) style: in terms of size and style, large cap stocks led the rise last week. From the historical quantile change of PE, last week, the PE quantile of large cap stocks rose by 3.2%, the PE quantile of small cap stocks rose by 3.2%, and the PE quantile of medium cap stocks fell by 0.2%. From the historical quantile change of Pb, the quantile of Pb in large cap stocks rose by 2.8%, medium cap stocks fell by 0.8% and small cap stocks rose by 0.5%.
3) industry: the valuation of each industry rose more or fell less last week. From the historical quantile change of PE, under the caliber of CITIC industry, real estate led the rise and petroleum and petrochemical led the decline. In terms of sectors, the cyclical sector fell more and rose less, led by the rise of 16.5% in the PE quantile of public utilities; TMT fell more or rose less, led by the upward 7.1% of PE quantile of power equipment; The financial sector generally rose, led by the rise of 26.1% in the PE quantile of real estate; The consumer sector rose more or fell less, led by the rise of pharmaceutical PE quantile by 23.4%.
4) overseas: the valuations of major overseas indexes rose more or fell less last week, led by Germany’s DAX index.
From the perspective of PE historical percentile change, major overseas indexes rose more or fell less, with the German DAX index PE quantile rising by 1.4%. From the perspective of overseas valuation, the Pb index rose by more than 5% and led the decline by more than 0.5%.
Risk premium: ERP down 0.10%
ERP: down 0.10%. As of April 1, 2022, wandequan a ERP was 4.39%, down 0.10% from March 25, 2022 and up 1.09% from the annual average of 2021.
Sentiment: the trading heat rises, and the balance of the two financial institutions continues to fall
1) the transaction activity of the current period increased, and the balance of the two financial institutions continued to fall. From the perspective of turnover rate, the turnover rate of major indexes generally rose, led by the 10.2% month on month rise of the turnover rate of CSI 500; From the perspective of price limit, the number of price limit companies has increased significantly. Last week, the daily limit was 23, up 54.7% month on month.
2) the number of new accounts opened in February increased slightly month on month, and the attention of the stock market decreased. The number of new accounts in February was 2.248 million, a slight increase of 3.60% month on month compared with 2.3442 million in January.
The attention of the stock market decreased, and the Baidu Index and wechat index decreased by 7.7% and 22.3% month on month respectively.
