In 2022, the value of new life insurance business generally declined, and the growth rate did not ease in the second half of the year. The growth rates of life insurance groups in the whole year were Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) -24%, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) -23%, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) -25%, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) -35% respectively. Only AIA achieved positive growth. In terms of new business value ratio, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) decreased by 5.5 percentage points year-on-year, China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) 5.9 percentage points, China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 15.4 percentage points, New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) 6.8 percentage points, only AIA increased by 6 percentage points year-on-year. In terms of manpower, by the end of last year, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) people (- 41%), China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) 820000 people (- 41%), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 601530000 people (- 30%), New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) 390000 people (- 36%).
In the same period, the premium income of China’s property insurance and auto insurance was 255.3 billion yuan (- 4%), with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 12 percentage points to 70.1%, a decrease of 11.3 percentage points to 27.2%, and a rise of 0.8 percentage points to 97.3% in the comprehensive cost ratio Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) auto insurance premium income was 188.8 billion yuan (- 3.7%), an increase of 8.7% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and the comprehensive loss ratio decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 98.9%; The premium income of CPIC property and automobile insurance was 91.8 billion yuan (- 4%), the comprehensive loss ratio increased by 10.6 percentage points to 71.1%, the comprehensive expense ratio decreased by 9.8 percentage points to 27.6% and the comprehensive cost ratio was 98.7%.
The premium of life insurance policy may decline year-on-year in 2020, but the premium of new auto insurance policy may continue to increase year-on-year.
Since January 2021 is the switching period for the definition of serious illness, the value of new business is high and the reference of year-on-year growth rate is poor. We mainly refer to the year-on-year growth rate in 2022 and 2020, and it is expected that Ping An Life has a certain performance. Life insurance deserves attention. We are optimistic about the performance of new orders in the second quarter. In the same period, the total premium of the auto insurance industry was 43.5 billion yuan (+ 12.6%), the average premium of auto insurance parts was 1295 yuan (+ 5.1%), the number of pieces was 33.58 million (+ 7.1%), and the average insured amount was 1.05 million yuan (+ 31.4%). The auto insurance premium of China Property Insurance in February was 14 billion yuan (+ 14.9%), and the market share increased to 32.2% year-on-year, and the trend continued to improve.
April investment strategy: Life Insurance β， Property insurance α， Maintain the “over allocation” rating of the sector. We expect new life insurance policies to improve, but the improvement may be limited. The market of life insurance industry this year mainly comes from the asset side, β More attributes, that is, with the implementation of the steady growth policy, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds may rise to the bottom, and the risk of real estate assets may gradually decline. At the same time, we expect the market of China’s property insurance this year α There are more attributes. On the one hand, the growth rate of auto insurance premium will continue, on the other hand, the catastrophe risk will decrease year-on-year, the profit of non auto insurance may improve, and the prosperity of China’s property insurance is continuing to rise.
Risk tips: macro, epidemic and other systemic risks, sharp decline in new life insurance orders, decline in auto insurance premiums, etc.
