Market Review
Last week (from March 28 to April 1, 2022), the commercial retail sector (Shenwan) rose by 3.93%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.29%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose by 2.43%. The commercial retail sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 by 1.5 percentage points, ranking sixth in the weekly rise and fall of Shenwan’s 31 primary sub industries.
Weak supply and demand, high cost
In March, the three major PMI indexes fell below the “boom and bust line” for the first time in nearly two quarters, and the overall prosperity level fell somewhat. In March, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, lower than 50.2% of the previous value; The non manufacturing business activity index was 48.4%, lower than 51.6% of the previous value; The comprehensive PMI output index was 48.8%, lower than 51.2% of the previous value. Both show that the production and operation activities of enterprises are affected by China’s aggregated epidemic and international geopolitical conflicts.
Manufacturing production PMI fell back to the contraction range again, due to weakening internal and external demand and production disturbance. The rise in international commodity prices raises costs and ex factory prices and suppresses business expectations. In the service industry, the rising epidemic has restrained business activities and enterprise expectations, weak demand and high input-output prices.
Gold prices fluctuated at a high level and fell slightly last week. As the Russia Ukraine dispute has made phased progress, risk aversion has receded slightly.
Announcement of key companies
Jingdong Industrial Development Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of [Jingdong group], raised about US $800 million from investors such as Hillhouse investment and Warburg Pincus investment. [Kwai] revenue in 2021 was 81 billion 100 million yuan, an increase of 37.9% over the same period last year. The net loss was 18.85 billion yuan. In the whole year, the Gmv of e-commerce reached 680 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.4%. The 2021Q4 Kwai DAU and MAU growth rate (19.2%, 21.5%) were the highest in the four quarter of 2021. [ Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) ] in 2021, the company’s revenue was 15.513 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.31%. [ Henan Liliang Diamond Co.Ltd(301071) ] it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 will be 93-103 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 127.89% – 152.40%.
Key industry news
[Alibaba] ① Jin Ke (flower name: Tang and song), general manager of leisure fish, was transferred to global express. At present, leisure fish is directly responsible by Liu Bo (flower name: Jialuo), vice president of Ali and head of “Ali mother”. ② Layout community e-commerce, test the “state stick” e-commerce app, focusing on the trend culture of young people. [meituan] launched “user cancellation insurance”. When the delivery order is cancelled due to the user, the insured delivery merchant can be compensated. [tiktok] is setting up a self catering electronic business team, relying on the platform of shaking, to achieve live / short tiktok.
Risk tips
Recurrence and spread of the epidemic; Macroeconomic downturn; Industry policy regulation exceeded expectations; Offline store expansion was lower than expected.
